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Toledo16atKentucky24

2025 · Week 1

Efficiency

Game-level Efficiency Breakdown

-10.9-5.50+5.5+10.9Toledo — Off. field pos.: -1.4-1.4Kentucky — Off. field pos.: +1.9+1.9Off. field pos.Points this side's offense added or cost purely from where its drives started, vs. a league-average FBS team.Toledo — Off. scoring eff.: -9.5-9.5Kentucky — Off. scoring eff.: -4.8-4.8Off. scoring eff.Points this side's offense added or cost finishing drives (given where they started), vs. a league-average FBS team.Toledo — Def. field pos.: -1.9-1.9Kentucky — Def. field pos.: +1.4+1.4Def. field pos.Points this side's defense saved or gave up in starting field position allowed, vs. a league-average FBS team.Toledo — Def. scoring eff.: +4.8+4.8Kentucky — Def. scoring eff.: +9.5+9.5Def. scoring eff.Points this side's defense saved or gave up letting the opponent finish drives, vs. a league-average FBS team.Toledo — Possessions: 0.00.0Kentucky — Possessions: 0.00.0PossessionsValue of having more or fewer real possessions than the opponent this game (onside kicks, half-opening/closing clock timing, etc.) — not offense or defense skill.
ToledoKentuckyBreaks the final margin of victory down into where it came from, compared to what an average FBS team would do in an average game — the five bars per team always add up to the real final margin. Click a bar for detail.

Running score

01326Q1Q2Q3FinalToledo 16Kentucky 24
ToledoKentuckyhover for any point, click for the by-quarter breakdown

Box score

ToledoKentucky
Total yards329305
Rushing yards59220
Rushing attempts2943
Yds / rush2.05.1
Passing yards27085
Passing attempts4023
Yds / pass6.83.7
First downs1717
Turnovers12
Penalties113
Penalty yards9330
Sacks03
Time of possession28:1931:41

Passing & rushing

What each offense did this game.

Toledo
By quarterPass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(12)42% / 58%33%4.6
Q2(19)47% / 53%16%3.2
Q3(11)82% / 18%27%4.8
Q4(24)71% / 29%46%7.3
how play-calling and results shifted through the game — (n) = plays
Passing by down(offense 40th on the season)
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(17)10.047%8.2
2nd(10)9.010%3.1
3rd(11)8.245%7.9
4th(2)3.050%2.5
All (40)—38%6.6
Rushing by down(offense 65th on the season)
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(10)10.010%1.9
2nd(11)7.836%4.5
3rd(3)3.033%4.3
4th(2)1.50%-0.5
All (26)—23%3.1
Kentucky
By quarterPass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(15)33% / 67%53%3.9
Q2(13)38% / 62%38%2.5
Q3(21)48% / 52%57%4.9
Q4(13)8% / 92%38%7.6
how play-calling and results shifted through the game — (n) = plays
Passing by down(offense 92nd on the season)
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(4)10.025%2.8
2nd(9)7.822%4.1
3rd(8)6.625%3.0
All (21)—24%3.4
Rushing by down(offense 23rd on the season)
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(23)10.057%7.3
2nd(12)5.850%3.0
3rd(6)1.8100%2.7
All (41)—61%5.4

Drive-by-drive — expected vs. actual points, each possession

1Drive 1: own 21 → Punt3Drive 3: opp 29 → TD5Drive 5: own 43 → Turnover9Drive 9: own 47 → —11Drive 11: 50 → FG13Drive 13: own 24 → Punt16Drive 16: own 12 → Punt18Drive 18: own 38 → Punt20Drive 20: own 24 → TD22Drive 22: own 21 → TD24Drive 24: own 44 → Punt26Drive 26: opp 38 → —own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Kentucky drives by field position

Each bar is a drive, from where it started to where it ended. Green = scored, red = turnover/downs/safety.

#StartTimePlaysYdsResultExpPts+/−
1own 21Q1 14:23731Punt1.70-1.7
3opp 29Q1 9:57820TD3.77+3.3
5own 43Q1 3:5537Turnover2.70-2.7
7—Q2 13:0810Safety(−2 opp)—0—
9own 47Q2 11:1323—2.70-2.7
1150Q2 7:191023FG2.73+0.3
13own 24Q2 1:0156Punt1.90-1.9
16own 12Q3 13:321134Punt1.50-1.5
18own 38Q3 8:14719Punt2.30-2.3
20own 24Q3 3:501462TD1.97+5.1
22own 21Q4 9:22179TD1.77+5.3
24own 44Q4 5:1562Punt2.70-2.7
26opp 38Q4 1:1786—3.40-3.4
13 drives6930528.824-4.8

Exp = points an average offense scores from that starting spot. +/− = actual minus expected.