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Wake Forest43atMississippi State29

2025 · Non-playoff Bowls · neutral site

Efficiency

Game-level Efficiency Breakdown

-17.9-90+9+17.9Wake Forest — Off. field pos.: -1.5-1.5Mississippi State — Off. field pos.: +3.8+3.8Off. field pos.Points this side's offense added or cost purely from where its drives started, vs. a league-average FBS team.Wake Forest — Off. scoring eff.: +15.6+15.6Mississippi State — Off. scoring eff.: -3.7-3.7Off. scoring eff.Points this side's offense added or cost finishing drives (given where they started), vs. a league-average FBS team.Wake Forest — Def. field pos.: -3.8-3.8Mississippi State — Def. field pos.: +1.5+1.5Def. field pos.Points this side's defense saved or gave up in starting field position allowed, vs. a league-average FBS team.Wake Forest — Def. scoring eff.: +3.7+3.7Mississippi State — Def. scoring eff.: -15.6-15.6Def. scoring eff.Points this side's defense saved or gave up letting the opponent finish drives, vs. a league-average FBS team.Wake Forest — Possessions: 0.00.0Mississippi State — Possessions: 0.00.0PossessionsValue of having more or fewer real possessions than the opponent this game (onside kicks, half-opening/closing clock timing, etc.) — not offense or defense skill.
Wake ForestMississippi StateBreaks the final margin of victory down into where it came from, compared to what an average FBS team would do in an average game — the five bars per team always add up to the real final margin. Click a bar for detail.

Running score

02447Q1Q2Q3FinalWake Forest 43Mississippi State 29
Wake ForestMississippi Statehover for any point, click for the by-quarter breakdown

Box score

Wake ForestMississippi State
Total yards451408
Rushing yards148114
Rushing attempts3542
Yds / rush4.22.7
Passing yards303294
Passing attempts3327
Yds / pass9.210.9
First downs2320
Turnovers10
Penalties97
Penalty yards7660
Sacks51
Time of possession31:3528:25

Passing & rushing

What each offense did this game.

Wake Forest
By quarterPass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(16)50% / 50%44%4.7
Q2(14)71% / 29%36%6.5
Q3(17)59% / 41%59%8.8
Q4(21)29% / 71%43%6.7
how play-calling and results shifted through the game — (n) = plays
Passing by down(offense 121st on the season)
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(13)10.846%7.1
2nd(12)8.333%9.3
3rd(9)7.744%11.7
All (34)—41%9.2
Rushing by down(offense 61st on the season)
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(18)9.644%4.3
2nd(10)8.340%4.4
3rd(6)3.283%4.5
All (34)—50%4.4
Mississippi State
By quarterPass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(22)50% / 50%41%7.6
Q2(19)37% / 63%26%3.5
Q3(15)27% / 73%40%5.5
Q4(13)77% / 23%38%7.8
how play-calling and results shifted through the game — (n) = plays
Passing by down(offense 57th on the season)
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(11)10.064%12.7
2nd(11)8.436%11.0
3rd(9)7.811%2.3
4th(1)5.00%0.0
All (32)—38%8.8
Rushing by down(offense 29th on the season)
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(20)9.435%3.9
2nd(11)7.036%4.3
3rd(5)3.440%2.8
4th(1)1.00%-2.0
All (37)—35%3.7

Drive-by-drive — expected vs. actual points, each possession

1Drive 1: own 25 → FG3Drive 3: own 25 → Punt5Drive 5: own 26 → FG7Drive 7: own 25 → Punt9Drive 9: own 37 → Downs11Drive 11: own 39 → FG13Drive 13: own 45 → —15Drive 15: opp 46 → End of half17Drive 17: own 25 → Punt19Drive 19: opp 33 → FG21Drive 21: own 35 → TD23Drive 23: own 16 → TD25Drive 25: own 25 → Punt27Drive 27: own 9 → Downsown 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Mississippi State drives by field position

Each bar is a drive, from where it started to where it ended. Green = scored, red = turnover/downs/safety.

#StartTimePlaysYdsResultExpPts+/−
1own 25Q1 15:00860FG1.93+1.1
3own 25Q1 12:33614Punt1.90-1.9
5own 26Q1 9:12742FG2.03+1.0
7own 25Q1 3:4945Punt1.90-1.9
9own 37Q1 1:491053Downs2.30-2.3
11own 39Q2 11:261331FG2.43+0.6
13own 45Q2 1:47534—2.70-2.7
15opp 46Q2 0:323-5End of half2.90-2.9
17own 25Q3 14:0653Punt1.90-1.9
19opp 33Q3 11:31515FG3.73-0.7
21own 35Q3 4:19865TD2.38+5.7
23own 16Q4 11:26569TD1.67+5.4
25own 25Q4 4:0754Punt1.90-1.9
27own 9Q4 2:10728Downs1.40-1.4
14 drives7040830.729-1.7

Exp = points an average offense scores from that starting spot. +/− = actual minus expected.