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Missouri State28atArkansas State34

2025 · Non-playoff Bowls · neutral site

Efficiency

Game-level Efficiency Breakdown

-6.5-3.30+3.3+6.5Missouri State — Off. field pos.: -2.4-2.4Arkansas State — Off. field pos.: +3.9+3.9Off. field pos.Points this side's offense added or cost purely from where its drives started, vs. a league-average FBS team.Missouri State — Off. scoring eff.: +5.7+5.7Arkansas State — Off. scoring eff.: +1.2+1.2Off. scoring eff.Points this side's offense added or cost finishing drives (given where they started), vs. a league-average FBS team.Missouri State — Def. field pos.: -3.9-3.9Arkansas State — Def. field pos.: +2.4+2.4Def. field pos.Points this side's defense saved or gave up in starting field position allowed, vs. a league-average FBS team.Missouri State — Def. scoring eff.: -1.2-1.2Arkansas State — Def. scoring eff.: -5.7-5.7Def. scoring eff.Points this side's defense saved or gave up letting the opponent finish drives, vs. a league-average FBS team.Missouri State — Possessions: -4.1-4.1Arkansas State — Possessions: +4.1+4.1PossessionsValue of having more or fewer real possessions than the opponent this game (onside kicks, half-opening/closing clock timing, etc.) — not offense or defense skill.
Missouri StateArkansas StateBreaks the final margin of victory down into where it came from, compared to what an average FBS team would do in an average game — the five bars per team always add up to the real final margin. Click a bar for detail.

Running score

01937Q1Q2Q3FinalMissouri State 28Arkansas State 34
Missouri StateArkansas Statehover for any point, click for the by-quarter breakdown

Box score

Missouri StateArkansas State
Total yards396359
Rushing yards4771
Rushing attempts3725
Yds / rush1.32.8
Passing yards349288
Passing attempts3531
Yds / pass10.09.3
First downs2316
Turnovers20
Penalties1410
Penalty yards115110
Sacks28
Time of possession39:0720:53

Passing & rushing

What each offense did this game.

Missouri State
By quarterPass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(19)47% / 53%42%6.2
Q2(19)58% / 42%42%2.8
Q3(16)56% / 44%31%3.7
Q4(16)81% / 19%44%11.9
how play-calling and results shifted through the game — (n) = plays
Passing by down(offense 108th on the season)
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(17)10.441%7.0
2nd(16)10.131%4.1
3rd(9)10.956%14.4
All (42)—40%7.5
Rushing by down(offense 121st on the season)
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(14)10.029%3.4
2nd(8)8.650%5.3
3rd(6)11.550%2.8
All (28)—39%3.8
Arkansas State
By quarterPass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(10)60% / 40%60%15.9
Q2(15)60% / 40%27%4.5
Q3(12)67% / 33%33%6.3
Q4(19)53% / 47%16%3.1
how play-calling and results shifted through the game — (n) = plays
Passing by down(offense 95th on the season)
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(10)11.550%10.8
2nd(12)9.833%6.8
3rd(11)11.618%8.0
All (33)—33%8.4
Rushing by down(offense 119th on the season)
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(16)9.819%3.8
2nd(5)8.440%3.2
3rd(2)7.550%3.0
All (23)—26%3.6

Drive-by-drive — expected vs. actual points, each possession

2Drive 2: own 40 → TD4Drive 4: own 5 → TD6Drive 6: own 35 → FG8Drive 8: opp 44 → TD10Drive 10: own 32 → Punt12Drive 12: own 20 → End of half13Drive 13: own 18 → Punt15Drive 15: own 35 → TD17Drive 17: own 40 → Punt19Drive 19: own 29 → FG21Drive 21: own 34 → Punt23Drive 23: own 37 → Punt24Drive 24: opp 22 → Missed FG26Drive 26: opp 46 → End of halfown 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Arkansas State drives by field position

Each bar is a drive, from where it started to where it ended. Green = scored, red = turnover/downs/safety.

#StartTimePlaysYdsResultExpPts+/−
2own 40Q1 12:57660TD2.57+4.5
4own 5Q1 3:51495TD1.27+5.8
6own 35Q1 0:161028FG2.33+0.7
8opp 44Q2 7:32444TD2.97+4.1
10own 32Q2 1:2960Punt2.30-2.3
12own 20Q2 0:252-1End of half1.70-1.7
13own 18Q3 14:5248Punt1.60-1.6
15own 35Q3 11:58565TD2.37+4.7
17own 40Q3 7:3762Punt2.50-2.5
19own 29Q4 14:43946FG2.13+0.9
21own 34Q4 8:535-9Punt2.30-2.3
23own 37Q4 5:15510Punt2.30-2.3
24opp 22Q4 3:44515Missed FG4.00-4.0
26opp 46Q4 1:514-4End of half2.90-2.9
14 drives6435932.834+1.2

Exp = points an average offense scores from that starting spot. +/− = actual minus expected.