Mountain West
2026 · through Week 2
Mountain West is the 9th-ranked FBS conference by average FanBoardHQ efficiency ranking, with 0 teams in the top 25. North Dakota State leads the conference, ranked 40th in efficiency nationally.
Projected Standings
Every member ordered by projected conference win total — per-game win probabilities combined across each team’s conference schedule. Click any column to re-sort.
| Team | Efficiency rank | SOR rank | Conf. sched. rank | Overall record | Conf. record | Proj. conf. wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota State | 40 | 30 | 10 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 7.8 |
| New Mexico | 61 | 50 | 8 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 6.2 |
| UNLV | 104 | 120 | 2 | 1-2 | 1-0 | 4.5 |
| Air Force | 95 | 104 | 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 4.5 |
| Nevada | 114 | 119 | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3.7 |
| San José State | 124 | 53 | 9 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 3.6 |
| Hawai'i | 116 | 125 | 7 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 3.2 |
| Northern Illinois | 129 | 126 | 6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3.0 |
| Wyoming | 132 | 114 | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2.5 |
| UTEP | 136 | 73 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2.1 |
Head-to-head Schedule Comparison
Read a column top to bottom for that team’s full conference schedule — opponents (the rows) are ordered by projected conference wins, so you can see whether a team drew more of the top or the bottom of the league. Cell shade = margin; click a result for the game breakdown, a “Wk N” cell for the matchup projection.
| North Dakota State | New Mexico | UNLV | Air Force | Nevada | San José State | Hawai'i | Northern Illinois | Wyoming | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota State | Wk8 | Wk6 | L 32-38 | Wk7 | Wk13 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk5 | Wk9 | |
| New Mexico | Wk8 | Wk11 | Wk13 | Wk10 | Wk9 | Wk7 | · | Wk12 | Wk5 | |
| UNLV | Wk6 | Wk11 | Wk7 | Wk13 | Wk12 | L 6-21 | Wk9 | Wk10 | · | |
| Air Force | W 38-32 | Wk13 | Wk7 | Wk4 | Wk11 | · | Wk6 | Wk8 | Wk12 | |
| Nevada | Wk7 | Wk10 | Wk13 | Wk4 | Wk8 | Wk12 | Wk11 | · | Wk6 | |
| San José State | Wk13 | Wk9 | Wk12 | Wk11 | Wk8 | Wk5 | Wk10 | Wk6 | Wk7 | |
| Hawai'i | Wk11 | Wk7 | W 21-6 | · | Wk12 | Wk5 | Wk8 | Wk4 | Wk10 | |
| Northern Illinois | Wk12 | · | Wk9 | Wk6 | Wk11 | Wk10 | Wk8 | Wk7 | Wk13 | |
| Wyoming | Wk5 | Wk12 | Wk10 | Wk8 | · | Wk6 | Wk4 | Wk7 | Wk11 | |
| UTEP | Wk9 | Wk5 | · | Wk12 | Wk6 | Wk7 | Wk10 | Wk13 | Wk11 | |
| Exp. wins for a #25 team | 8.1 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 6.8 |
| Conf. sched. difficulty rank | 10th | 8th | 2nd | 5th | 4th | 9th | 7th | 6th | 3rd | 1st |
| Projected conf. wins | 7.8 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Conference record | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Conference win total projections
Probability of each final conference win total, from per-game win probabilities combined across the schedule. Darker green = more likely; each team’s single most likely total is in bold.
| Team | 0 wins | 1 win | 2 wins | 3 wins | 4 wins | 5 wins | 6 wins | 7 wins | 8 wins | 9 wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota State | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 7.7% | 25.6% | 41.6% | 23.6% |
| New Mexico | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 6.0% | 18.4% | 32.7% | 30.5% | 11.0% | — |
| UNLV | 0.0% | 0.4% | 3.9% | 15.6% | 30.3% | 30.4% | 15.5% | 3.7% | 0.3% | — |
| Air Force | 0.0% | 0.6% | 4.4% | 15.3% | 29.7% | 31.3% | 15.9% | 2.7% | 0.0% | — |
| Nevada | 0.4% | 3.5% | 12.9% | 25.7% | 29.4% | 19.6% | 7.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% | — |
| San José State | 0.6% | 4.8% | 15.4% | 26.6% | 27.3% | 17.1% | 6.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hawai'i | 1.0% | 7.3% | 21.2% | 31.5% | 25.5% | 11.0% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | — |
| Northern Illinois | 1.7% | 10.2% | 24.0% | 30.2% | 22.0% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | — |
| Wyoming | 3.9% | 17.1% | 30.3% | 28.3% | 15.0% | 4.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | — |
| UTEP | 7.5% | 24.9% | 33.3% | 23.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — |
Every model rank
Where each member sits in every FanBoardHQ model. Default order is projected conference wins; click any column to re-sort. Pass/Rush Eff blend EPA/play, success rate, and yards/play, standardized over the FBS field.
| Offensive Eff | Defensive Eff | Overall Efficiency | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass O Eff | Rush O Eff | Total Off Eff | Pass D Eff | Rush D Eff | Total Def Eff | Overall Eff |
| North Dakota State | 51 | 103 | 46 | 50 | 54 | 53 | 40 |
| New Mexico | 124 | 34 | 55 | 26 | 44 | 59 | 61 |
| UNLV | 117 | 111 | 123 | 51 | 126 | 61 | 104 |
| Air Force | 20 | 53 | 66 | 98 | 94 | 121 | 95 |
| Nevada | 136 | 60 | 130 | 113 | 117 | 62 | 114 |
| San José State | 69 | 128 | 125 | 29 | 114 | 105 | 124 |
| Hawai'i | 121 | 123 | 124 | 85 | 136 | 90 | 116 |
| Northern Illinois | 138 | 133 | 127 | 91 | 122 | 125 | 129 |
| Wyoming | 123 | 121 | 137 | 86 | 65 | 95 | 132 |
| UTEP | 85 | 106 | 120 | 131 | 93 | 138 | 136 |
Compare teams
Pick up to three teams to compare their strengths across every model.
Further from center = better (FBS percentile).
Quadrant records
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota State | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| New Mexico | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| UNLV | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Air Force | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Nevada | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| San José State | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Hawai'i | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Northern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Wyoming | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| UTEP | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
Weekly GameScore Efficiency Rating
Each team's single-game GameScore, week by week — points better (or worse) than an average team, opponent-adjusted. Green = strong, red = weak, centered at 0. Click a week header to rank that week’s performances, or a cell for that game.
| Team | Week 0 | Week 1 | Week 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota State | 20.5 | 8.9 | 1.8 |
| New Mexico | 17.2 | -2.7 | |
| UNLV | 4.3 | -27.5 | |
| Air Force | -8.6 | -1.6 | |
| Nevada | 8.2 | -26.5 | |
| San José State | -12.6 | -9.6 | -21.4 |
| Hawai'i | -16.8 | -26.7 | -9.0 |
| Northern Illinois | -24.8 | -20.0 | |
| Wyoming | -26.5 | -24.6 | |
| UTEP | -32.7 | -18.3 |