FanBoardHQ

Air Force

United States Air Force Academy · 2026 · Mountain West

Efficiency
-6.5
95th FBS
Record
1-1
Conf. record
0-1
Conf. finish
4th
proj. of 10
Air Force Fanboard →

Air Force is 1-1 and ranked 95th in overall efficiency. Their 66th-ranked offense is the engine, backed by a 121st-ranked defense. They run the ball on 81% of offensive plays with a 53rd-ranked rushing attack and pass the ball on the remaining 19% of plays with a 20th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-0
Q2
0-1
+1 left
Q3
0-0
+1 left
Q4
1-0
+8 left

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 6.9 wins
Strength of Record
104th
-0.7 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
81st
full season
126th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
106th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~7.0 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs DuquesneNECW 340+36.9100%-8.6Q4
2vs North Dakota StateMountain West#40L 3238-10.40%-1.6Q2
4@ NevadaMountain West#114Preview+2.155%Q4
5vs NavyAmerican Athletic#101Preview+4.761%Q4
6@ Northern IllinoisMountain West#129Preview+8.669%Q4
7vs UNLVMountain West#104Preview+5.563%Q4
8@ WyomingMountain West#132Preview+10.072%Q4
9vs UConnFBS Independents#105Preview+5.763%Q4
10@ ArmyAmerican Athletic#56Preview-13.721%Q2
11vs San José StateMountain West#124Preview+11.575%Q4
12vs UTEPMountain West#136Preview+18.987%Q4
13@ New MexicoMountain West#61Preview-11.824%Q3

2 played · 1-1. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Air Force, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-7.9-4.3-0.7-9-2Week 0Week 2
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 20th
SR 22ndYPP 10thEPA 26th
RushingEff 53rd
SR 43rdYPP 81stEPA 49th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 98th
SR 116thYPP 110thEPA 75th
Rush defenseEff 94th
SR 66thYPP 102ndEPA 99th
Dropback rate 19%Tempo +1.7 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 50th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 52%1st · Defense allowed: 33%1st2nd · Offense: 50%2nd · Defense allowed: 26%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 61%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 46%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 7.0Q1 · Allowed: 7.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 20.0Q2 · Allowed: 21.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 7.0Q3 · Allowed: 7.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 28.0Q4 · Allowed: 3.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledAir ForceOffenseDefense
Air Force Offense vs Defense, 2026
Offensive EffRanked 66th
+0.1
Field position: -0.3Finishing drives: +0.4
Field position -0.3Finishing drives +0.4= +0.1
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 78th · Finishing 69th

Defensive EffRanked 121st
-7.0
Field position: -0.5Finishing drives: -6.4
Field position -0.5Finishing drives -6.4= -7.0
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 98th · Finishing 120th

2.79 points per drive on offense, 1.20 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 26.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(25)8% / 92%40%5.0
Q2(34)21% / 79%50%6.3
Q3(33)15% / 85%58%6.2
Q4(52)17% / 83%60%5.8
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(5)10.080%17.0
2nd(10)6.430%5.1
3rd(7)9.043%7.0
4th(1)12.0100%13.0
All (23)48%8.7
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(60)9.550%5.8
2nd(36)6.256%4.9
3rd(22)4.959%4.5
4th(3)2.7100%7.7
All (121)55%5.3

Air Force, all games.