Air Force
United States Air Force Academy · 2026 · Mountain West
Air Force is 1-1 and ranked 95th in overall efficiency. Their 66th-ranked offense is the engine, backed by a 121st-ranked defense. They run the ball on 81% of offensive plays with a 53rd-ranked rushing attack and pass the ball on the remaining 19% of plays with a 20th-ranked passing attack.
Quadrant record
By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.
Projected wins
Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.
The resume
Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).
| Wk | Opponent | Conf | Opp rank | Result | Exp. margin | Win prob | GameScore | Quad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Duquesne | NEC | — | W 34–0 | +36.9 | 100% | -8.6 | Q4 |
| 2 | vs North Dakota State | Mountain West | #40 | L 32–38 | -10.4 | 0% | -1.6 | Q2 |
| 4 | @ Nevada | Mountain West | #114 | Preview | +2.1 | 55% | — | Q4 |
| 5 | vs Navy | American Athletic | #101 | Preview | +4.7 | 61% | — | Q4 |
| 6 | @ Northern Illinois | Mountain West | #129 | Preview | +8.6 | 69% | — | Q4 |
| 7 | vs UNLV | Mountain West | #104 | Preview | +5.5 | 63% | — | Q4 |
| 8 | @ Wyoming | Mountain West | #132 | Preview | +10.0 | 72% | — | Q4 |
| 9 | vs UConn | FBS Independents | #105 | Preview | +5.7 | 63% | — | Q4 |
| 10 | @ Army | American Athletic | #56 | Preview | -13.7 | 21% | — | Q2 |
| 11 | vs San José State | Mountain West | #124 | Preview | +11.5 | 75% | — | Q4 |
| 12 | vs UTEP | Mountain West | #136 | Preview | +18.9 | 87% | — | Q4 |
| 13 | @ New Mexico | Mountain West | #61 | Preview | -11.8 | 24% | — | Q3 |
2 played · 1-1. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.
The season
The model’s read on Air Force, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.
Passing & rushing
Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.
Their offense vs. what their defense allows.
Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.
What kind of team is this?
Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.
Field position 78th · Finishing 69th
Field position 98th · Finishing 120th
2.79 points per drive on offense, 1.20 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 26.
Play-calling & efficiency
What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.
| Quarter (att.) | Pass / rush | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1(25) | 8% / 92% | 40% | 5.0 |
| Q2(34) | 21% / 79% | 50% | 6.3 |
| Q3(33) | 15% / 85% | 58% | 6.2 |
| Q4(52) | 17% / 83% | 60% | 5.8 |
| Down (att.) | Avg. to go | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st(5) | 10.0 | 80% | 17.0 |
| 2nd(10) | 6.4 | 30% | 5.1 |
| 3rd(7) | 9.0 | 43% | 7.0 |
| 4th(1) | 12.0 | 100% | 13.0 |
| All (23) | — | 48% | 8.7 |
| Down (att.) | Avg. to go | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st(60) | 9.5 | 50% | 5.8 |
| 2nd(36) | 6.2 | 56% | 4.9 |
| 3rd(22) | 4.9 | 59% | 4.5 |
| 4th(3) | 2.7 | 100% | 7.7 |
| All (121) | — | 55% | 5.3 |
Air Force, all games.