FanBoardHQ

Louisville

University of Louisville · 2026 · ACC

Efficiency
+5.9
48th FBS
Record
1-1
Conf. record
Conf. finish
7th
proj. of 17
Louisville Fanboard →

Louisville is 1-1 and ranked 48th in overall efficiency. Their 33rd-ranked offense is the engine, backed by a 58th-ranked defense. They run the ball on 52% of offensive plays with a 16th-ranked rushing attack and pass the ball on the remaining 48% of plays with a 16th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-1
+1 left
Q2
0-0
+3 left
Q3
0-0
+4 left
Q4
1-0
+2 left

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 6.6 wins
Strength of Record
91st
-0.5 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
53rd
full season
55th
AP poll
#23
FanBoardHQ has them 25 spots lower
Conf. sched. difficulty
76th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.3 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs Ole MissSEC#25L 3841-6.40%9.1Q1
2vs VillanovaPatriotW 5913+40.2100%1.6Q4
3vs SMUACC#20Preview-5.737%Q1
4vs Wake ForestACC#41Preview+2.055%Q3
5@ NC StateACC#53Preview-2.245%Q2
6vs Florida StateACC#49Preview+2.857%Q3
7@ SyracuseACC#71Preview+5.362%Q3
9vs StanfordACC#108Preview+18.686%Q4
10@ Georgia TechACC#93Preview+9.271%Q4
11@ North CarolinaACC#62Preview+1.654%Q3
12vs PittsburghACC#27Preview-2.744%Q2
13@ KentuckySEC#55Preview-1.646%Q2

2 played · 1-1. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Louisville, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

+0.7+4.5+8.492Week 0Week 2
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 16th
SR 37thYPP 7thEPA 18th
RushingEff 16th
SR 16thYPP 12thEPA 24th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 62nd
SR 20thYPP 78thEPA 73rd
Rush defenseEff 39th
SR 37thYPP 25thEPA 46th
Dropback rate 48%Tempo -0.9 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 113th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 57%1st · Defense allowed: 38%1st2nd · Offense: 55%2nd · Defense allowed: 37%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 50%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 33%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 20.0Q1 · Allowed: 3.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 17.0Q2 · Allowed: 17.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 31.0Q3 · Allowed: 17.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 28.0Q4 · Allowed: 17.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledLouisvilleOffenseDefense
Louisville Offense vs Defense, 2026
Offensive EffRanked 33rd
+4.8
Field position: -1.0Finishing drives: +5.7
Field position -1.0Finishing drives +5.7= +4.8
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 98th · Finishing 27th

Defensive EffRanked 58th
+1.0
Field position: +0.8Finishing drives: +0.2
Field position +0.8Finishing drives +0.2= +1.0
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 42nd · Finishing 69th

3.19 points per drive on offense, 1.88 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 30.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(27)48% / 52%52%8.7
Q2(37)49% / 51%46%7.5
Q3(34)38% / 62%59%10.2
Q4(33)48% / 52%64%8.2
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(27)9.970%14.8
2nd(21)8.648%8.8
3rd(12)7.542%6.9
4th(0)
All (60)57%11.1
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(36)10.047%6.0
2nd(23)6.861%8.0
3rd(12)5.658%5.2
4th(0)
All (71)54%6.5

Louisville, all games.