Missouri State
Missouri State University · 2026 · Conference USA
Missouri State is 1-1 and ranked 99th in overall efficiency. Their 87th-ranked defense carries them, with a 103rd-ranked offense. They run the ball on 54% of offensive plays with a 109th-ranked rushing attack and pass the ball on the remaining 46% of plays with a 77th-ranked passing attack.
Quadrant record
By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.
Projected wins
Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.
The resume
Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).
| Wk | Opponent | Conf | Opp rank | Result | Exp. margin | Win prob | GameScore | Quad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Texas A&M | SEC | #4 | L 0–50 | -33.4 | 0% | -10.6 | Q1 |
| 2 | vs Lindenwood | OVC | — | W 48–14 | +31.5 | 100% | 1.6 | Q4 |
| 3 | vs Marshall | Sun Belt | #103 | Preview | +4.4 | 60% | — | Q4 |
| 4 | @ SMU | ACC | #20 | Preview | -24.7 | 7% | — | Q1 |
| 6 | @ Western Kentucky | Conference USA | #133 | Preview | +9.8 | 72% | — | Q4 |
| 7 | vs Kennesaw State | Conference USA | #125 | Preview | +10.7 | 74% | — | Q4 |
| 8 | @ Delaware | Conference USA | #82 | Preview | -6.8 | 34% | — | Q3 |
| 9 | vs Sam Houston | Conference USA | #123 | Preview | +10.0 | 72% | — | Q4 |
| 10 | @ FIU | Conference USA | #100 | Preview | -2.3 | 45% | — | Q4 |
| 11 | vs New Mexico State | Conference USA | #120 | Preview | +9.8 | 72% | — | Q4 |
| 12 | @ Jacksonville State | Conference USA | #85 | Preview | -6.0 | 36% | — | Q3 |
| 13 | vs Liberty | Conference USA | #117 | Preview | +8.6 | 69% | — | Q4 |
2 played · 1-1. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.
The season
The model’s read on Missouri State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.
Passing & rushing
Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.
Their offense vs. what their defense allows.
Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.
What kind of team is this?
Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.
Field position 84th · Finishing 96th
Field position 83rd · Finishing 91st
1.48 points per drive on offense, 2.78 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 32.
Play-calling & efficiency
What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.
| Quarter (att.) | Pass / rush | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1(29) | 62% / 38% | 38% | 5.4 |
| Q2(32) | 28% / 72% | 41% | 7.5 |
| Q3(25) | 36% / 64% | 36% | 7.4 |
| Q4(30) | 23% / 77% | 37% | 2.6 |
| Down (att.) | Avg. to go | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st(16) | 9.8 | 38% | 10.2 |
| 2nd(10) | 9.9 | 30% | 7.1 |
| 3rd(16) | 8.4 | 31% | 7.0 |
| 4th(1) | 6.0 | 0% | 0.0 |
| All (43) | — | 33% | 8.0 |
| Down (att.) | Avg. to go | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st(32) | 10.5 | 34% | 4.5 |
| 2nd(28) | 7.5 | 46% | 4.2 |
| 3rd(9) | 5.8 | 44% | 5.2 |
| 4th(4) | 1.5 | 50% | 1.8 |
| All (73) | — | 41% | 4.3 |
Missouri State, all games.