Sacramento State
California State University, Sacramento · 2026 · Mid-American
Sacramento State is 1-2 and ranked 135th in overall efficiency. Their 128th-ranked defense carries them, with a 134th-ranked offense. They pass the ball on 66% of offensive plays with a 134th-ranked passing attack and run the ball on the remaining 34% of plays with a 125th-ranked rushing attack.
Quadrant record
By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.
Projected wins
Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.
The resume
Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).
| Wk | Opponent | Conf | Opp rank | Result | Exp. margin | Win prob | GameScore | Quad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | @ Eastern Michigan | Mid-American | #127 | L 17–28 | -7.5 | 0% | -24.0 | Q4 |
| 1 | vs Mississippi Valley State | SWAC | — | W 52–0 | +25.3 | 100% | -8.3 | Q4 |
| 2 | @ Fresno State | Pac-12 | #79 | L 3–49 | -21.6 | 0% | -41.1 | Q3 |
| 3 | vs North Dakota State | Mountain West | #40 | Preview | -25.8 | 6% | — | Q2 |
| 4 | vs Massachusetts | Mid-American | #121 | Preview | -4.5 | 40% | — | Q4 |
| 6 | @ Bowling Green | Mid-American | #138 | Preview | +2.0 | 55% | — | Q4 |
| 7 | vs Ohio | Mid-American | #98 | Preview | -12.3 | 23% | — | Q4 |
| 8 | @ Ball State | Mid-American | #126 | Preview | -8.7 | 30% | — | Q4 |
| 9 | vs Kent State | Mid-American | #131 | Preview | -0.6 | 49% | — | Q4 |
| 10 | vs Toledo | Mid-American | #58 | Preview | -22.9 | 9% | — | Q3 |
| 11 | @ Central Michigan | Mid-American | #128 | Preview | -7.2 | 34% | — | Q4 |
| 13 | @ Hawai'i | Mountain West | #116 | Preview | -11.5 | 25% | — | Q4 |
3 played · 1-2. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.
The season
The model’s read on Sacramento State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.
Passing & rushing
Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.
Their offense vs. what their defense allows.
Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.
What kind of team is this?
Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.
Field position 34th · Finishing 136th
Field position 90th · Finishing 128th
1.67 points per drive on offense, 2.03 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 34.
Play-calling & efficiency
What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.
| Quarter (att.) | Pass / rush | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1(39) | 51% / 49% | 26% | 3.4 |
| Q2(60) | 72% / 28% | 37% | 3.8 |
| Q3(50) | 54% / 46% | 56% | 7.2 |
| Q4(48) | 40% / 60% | 48% | 6.4 |
| Down (att.) | Avg. to go | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st(35) | 10.4 | 40% | 6.2 |
| 2nd(41) | 9.3 | 44% | 6.8 |
| 3rd(28) | 9.3 | 21% | 4.4 |
| 4th(5) | 5.4 | 20% | 0.6 |
| All (109) | — | 36% | 5.7 |
| Down (att.) | Avg. to go | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st(49) | 9.7 | 45% | 4.5 |
| 2nd(24) | 6.8 | 50% | 4.6 |
| 3rd(12) | 2.6 | 58% | 4.7 |
| 4th(3) | 1.0 | 100% | 5.7 |
| All (88) | — | 50% | 4.6 |
Sacramento State, all games.