FanBoardHQ

Buffalo

University at Buffalo · 2026 · Mid-American

Efficiency
-18.3
130th FBS
Record
1-1
Conf. record
Conf. finish
11th
proj. of 13
Buffalo Fanboard →

Buffalo is 1-1 and ranked 130th in overall efficiency. Their 108th-ranked defense carries them, with a 133rd-ranked offense. They pass the ball on 62% of offensive plays with a 129th-ranked passing attack and run the ball on the remaining 38% of plays with a 132nd-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-0
+1 left
Q2
0-0
+2 left
Q3
0-0
Q4
1-1
+7 left

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 4.5 wins
Strength of Record
115th
-0.8 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
113th
full season
99th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
97th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.9 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs UAlbanyCoastal AthleticW 2117+7.5100%-21.7Q4
2@ FIUConference USA#100L 2033-13.00%-16.8Q4
3@ Penn StateBig Ten#16Preview-37.81%Q1
4vs Robert MorrisNECPreview+9.070%Q4
5vs Western MichiganMid-American#38Preview-22.79%Q2
6@ ToledoMid-American#58Preview-24.87%Q2
7vs MassachusettsMid-American#121Preview-0.948%Q4
8vs Bowling GreenMid-American#138Preview+11.074%Q4
10@ Miami-OHMid-American#96Preview-14.420%Q4
11@ Ball StateMid-American#126Preview-5.238%Q4
12vs Central MichiganMid-American#128Preview+1.854%Q4
13@ AkronMid-American#107Preview-11.525%Q4

2 played · 1-1. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Buffalo, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-19.9-10.8-1.7-22-17Week 0Week 2
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 129th
SR 131stYPP 130thEPA 118th
RushingEff 132nd
SR 135thYPP 119thEPA 129th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 116th
SR 81stYPP 118thEPA 120th
Rush defenseEff 61st
SR 61stYPP 65thEPA 59th
Dropback rate 62%Tempo +6.5 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 59th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 32%1st · Defense allowed: 30%1st2nd · Offense: 29%2nd · Defense allowed: 39%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 43%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 37%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 3.0Q1 · Allowed: 21.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 17.0Q2 · Allowed: 10.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 7.0Q3 · Allowed: 17.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 14.0Q4 · Allowed: 3.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledBuffaloOffenseDefense
Buffalo Offense vs Defense, 2026
Offensive EffRanked 133rd
-12.0
Field position: -2.7Finishing drives: -9.2
Field position -2.7Finishing drives -9.2= -12.0
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 136th · Finishing 128th

Defensive EffRanked 108th
-5.0
Field position: -1.3Finishing drives: -3.7
Field position -1.3Finishing drives -3.7= -5.0
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 115th · Finishing 98th

1.36 points per drive on offense, 1.29 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 27.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(39)54% / 46%33%3.5
Q2(40)53% / 48%40%4.0
Q3(31)65% / 35%29%5.5
Q4(36)81% / 19%31%5.7
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(28)10.429%3.9
2nd(30)9.037%3.9
3rd(30)7.640%5.8
4th(3)10.767%17.5
All (91)36%4.9
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(29)10.034%4.5
2nd(19)8.816%2.5
3rd(6)9.533%6.0
4th(1)3.0100%17.0
All (55)29%4.2

Buffalo, all games.