FanBoardHQ

Illinois

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign · 2022 · Big Ten

FanBoardHQ CFP
#30
Efficiency
+13.4
19th FBS
Record
8-5
Conf. record
5-4
Conf. finish
T-5th
of 14
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Illinois went 8-5 and was ranked 30th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 4th-ranked defense carried them, with a 59th-ranked offense. They ran the ball on 53% of offensive plays with a 51st-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 47% of plays with a 45th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
1-2
Q2
2-0
Q3
1-2
Q4
4-1

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 8.0 wins
Strength of Record
37th
-0.7 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
56th
full season
56th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
62nd
a 25th-ranked team would win ~5.6 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
0vs WyomingMountain West#83W 386+26.2100%14.0Q4
1@ IndianaBig Ten#89L 2023+14.00%-3.4Q3
2vs VirginiaACC#100W 243+22.2100%8.3Q4
4vs ChattanoogaSouthernW 310+25.2100%22.9Q4
5@ WisconsinBig Ten#47W 3410+1.0100%35.7Q1
6vs IowaBig Ten#22W 96+5.0100%11.7Q2
7vs MinnesotaBig Ten#24W 2614+4.4100%21.9Q2
9@ NebraskaBig Ten#91W 269+12.5100%16.4Q3
10vs Michigan StateBig Ten#67L 1523+16.10%-12.1Q4
11vs PurdueBig Ten#34L 2431+12.40%-6.4Q3
12@ MichiganBig Ten#6L 1719-12.70%23.4Q1
13@ NorthwesternBig Ten#124W 413+18.3100%30.1Q4
Postseason
vs Mississippi StateSEC#16L 1019-1.00%8.9Q1

13 played · 8-5. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Illinois, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-8.3+11.8+31.914-382336122216-12-62330Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 45th
SR 26thYPP 58thEPA 45th
RushingEff 51st
SR 28thYPP 44thEPA 56th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 10th
SR 14thYPP 22ndEPA 10th
Rush defenseEff 11th
SR 3rdYPP 32ndEPA 10th
Dropback rate 47%Tempo +3.5 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 51st on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 45%1st · Defense allowed: 33%1st2nd · Offense: 43%2nd · Defense allowed: 32%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 42%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 34%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 76.0Q1 · Allowed: 32.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 91.0Q2 · Allowed: 57.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 78.0Q3 · Allowed: 34.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 49.0Q4 · Allowed: 39.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledIllinoisOffenseDefense
Illinois Offense vs Defense, 2022
Offensive EffRanked 59th
+0.6
Field position: +1.2Finishing drives: -0.7
Field position +1.2Finishing drives -0.7= +0.6
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 23rd · Finishing 66th

Defensive EffRanked 4th
+11.9
Field position: +1.3Finishing drives: +10.6
Field position +1.3Finishing drives +10.6= +11.9
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 24th · Finishing 5th

1.89 points per drive on offense, 1.00 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 30.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(221)47% / 53%42%6.4
Q2(251)49% / 51%48%5.2
Q3(217)44% / 56%50%5.7
Q4(222)39% / 61%36%4.5
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(142)9.957%7.7
2nd(137)8.439%6.7
3rd(118)7.135%4.0
4th(11)7.545%5.0
All (408)44%6.2
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(263)9.739%4.6
2nd(164)6.747%5.3
3rd(64)4.452%4.5
4th(12)3.158%3.3
All (503)44%4.8

Illinois, all games.