FanBoardHQ

Navy

United States Naval Academy · 2025 · American Athletic

FanBoardHQ CFP
#24
Efficiency
+3.8
54th FBS
Record
11-2
Conf. record
8-1
Conf. finish
T-1st
of 14
Navy Fanboard →

Navy went 11-2 and was ranked 24th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 38th-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 64th-ranked defense. They ran the ball on 77% of offensive plays with a 15th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 23% of plays with a 32nd-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
1-2
Q2
1-0
Q3
2-0
Q4
7-0

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 11.0 wins
Strength of Record
18th
+1.3 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
73rd
full season
73rd
CFP committee
Unranked
FanBoardHQ has them 2 spots higher
Conf. sched. difficulty
95th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.9 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs VMISouthernW 527+52.8100%-2.4Q4
2vs UABAmerican Athletic#118W 3824+22.9100%-2.5Q4
3@ TulsaAmerican Athletic#109W 4223+10.6100%12.8Q4
5vs RiceAmerican Athletic#106W 2113+22.9100%-8.9Q4
6vs Air ForceMountain West#105W 3431+13.4100%-6.4Q4
7@ TempleAmerican Athletic#93W 3231+8.4100%-1.8Q4
9vs Florida AtlanticAmerican Athletic#107W 4232+16.6100%5.7Q4
10@ North TexasAmerican Athletic#21L 1731-12.70%0.3Q1
11@ Notre DameFBS Independents#11L 1049-26.40%-7.4Q1
12vs South FloridaAmerican Athletic#30W 4138-7.7100%14.2Q1
14@ MemphisAmerican Athletic#58W 2817-2.0100%16.1Q2
16vs ArmyAmerican Athletic#67W 1716+2.2100%4.3Q3
Postseason
vs CincinnatiBig 12#54W 3513-0.2100%25.1Q3

13 played · 11-2. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Navy, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-6.9+3.6+14.1-2-313-9-6-260-714164Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 32nd
SR 71stYPP 25thEPA 21st
RushingEff 15th
SR 15thYPP 15thEPA 13th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 69th
SR 67thYPP 76thEPA 65th
Rush defenseEff 56th
SR 33rdYPP 45thEPA 81st
Dropback rate 23%Tempo +0.8 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 82nd on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 50%1st · Defense allowed: 40%1st2nd · Offense: 47%2nd · Defense allowed: 38%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 55%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 46%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 87.0Q1 · Allowed: 72.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 124.0Q2 · Allowed: 101.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 76.0Q3 · Allowed: 62.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 114.0Q4 · Allowed: 94.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledNavyOffenseDefense
Navy Offense vs Defense, 2025
Offensive EffRanked 38th
+4.8
Field position: -0.1Finishing drives: +5.0
Field position -0.1Finishing drives +5.0= +4.8
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 66th · Finishing 33rd

Defensive EffRanked 64th
-0.0
Field position: +0.6Finishing drives: -0.6
Field position +0.6Finishing drives -0.6= -0.0
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 48th · Finishing 72nd

2.99 points per drive on offense, 2.40 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 31.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(187)22% / 78%56%7.8
Q2(195)30% / 70%48%7.2
Q3(209)24% / 76%47%6.5
Q4(213)18% / 82%49%6.0
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(71)10.345%9.1
2nd(51)8.343%12.1
3rd(60)8.435%5.9
4th(7)4.357%8.1
All (189)42%8.8
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(290)9.651%6.1
2nd(206)6.448%6.0
3rd(101)4.863%7.2
4th(18)1.972%6.2
All (615)53%6.2

Navy, all games.