FanBoardHQ

Ole Miss

University of Mississippi · 2024 · SEC

FanBoardHQ CFP
#10
Efficiency
+22.2
5th FBS
Record
10-3
Conf. record
5-3
Conf. finish
T-4th
of 16
Ole Miss Fanboard →

Ole Miss went 10-3 and was ranked 10th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 6th-ranked defense carried them, with a 14th-ranked offense. They passed the ball on 53% of offensive plays with a 3rd-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 47% of plays with a 52nd-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
2-2
Q2
2-0
Q3
2-1
Q4
4-0

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
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13
Expected: 10.0 wins
Strength of Record
18th
+1.1 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
56th
full season
56th
CFP committee
#14
FanBoardHQ has them 4 spots higher
Conf. sched. difficulty
18th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~4.4 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs FurmanSouthernW 760+58.8100%15.6Q4
2vs Middle TennesseeConference USA#130W 523+54.0100%15.8Q4
3@ Wake ForestACC#102W 406+26.0100%27.1Q3
4vs Georgia SouthernSun Belt#62W 5213+27.6100%28.9Q4
5vs KentuckySEC#77L 1720+21.10%-2.0Q3
6@ South CarolinaSEC#16W 273+3.3100%38.9Q1
7@ LSUSEC#12L 2629+5.10%16.9Q1
9vs OklahomaSEC#45W 2614+15.3100%20.1Q2
10@ ArkansasSEC#44W 6331+12.0100%36.6Q2
11vs GeorgiaSEC#4W 2810+4.5100%35.3Q1
13@ FloridaSEC#25L 1724+7.00%9.5Q1
14vs Mississippi StateSEC#114W 2614+28.3100%5.0Q4
Postseason
vs DukeACC#39W 5220+20.7100%32.3Q3

13 played · 10-3. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Ole Miss, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

+1.3+18.5+35.716162729-2391720373595Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 3rd
SR 7thYPP 2ndEPA 3rd
RushingEff 52nd
SR 69thYPP 73rdEPA 45th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 20th
SR 16thYPP 17thEPA 32nd
Rush defenseEff 1st
SR 1stYPP 1stEPA 2nd
Dropback rate 53%Tempo -3.8 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 62nd on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 50%1st · Defense allowed: 36%1st2nd · Offense: 50%2nd · Defense allowed: 32%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 46%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 37%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 141.0Q1 · Allowed: 37.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 147.0Q2 · Allowed: 71.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 127.0Q3 · Allowed: 29.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 77.0Q4 · Allowed: 45.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledOle MissOffenseDefense
Ole Miss Offense vs Defense, 2024
Offensive EffRanked 14th
+9.4
Field position: +0.8Finishing drives: +8.6
Field position +0.8Finishing drives +8.6= +9.4
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 38th · Finishing 12th

Defensive EffRanked 6th
+10.5
Field position: +2.5Finishing drives: +8.0
Field position +2.5Finishing drives +8.0= +10.5
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 2nd · Finishing 16th

3.03 points per drive on offense, 1.16 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 30.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(258)52% / 48%49%7.6
Q2(241)54% / 46%52%8.1
Q3(207)51% / 49%54%7.5
Q4(218)41% / 59%43%6.4
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(208)10.361%10.6
2nd(150)8.849%9.8
3rd(87)8.237%6.6
4th(13)6.054%14.1
All (458)52%9.7
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(221)9.740%5.0
2nd(148)6.852%6.0
3rd(80)5.450%5.0
4th(17)1.165%5.1
All (466)47%5.3

Ole Miss, all games.