FanBoardHQ

Kentucky

University of Kentucky · 2024 · SEC

FanBoardHQ CFP
#77
Efficiency
+3.9
55th FBS
Record
4-8
Conf. record
1-7
Conf. finish
15th
of 16
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Kentucky went 4-8 and was ranked 77th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 35th-ranked defense carried them, with an 83rd-ranked offense. They ran the ball on 54% of offensive plays with a 28th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 46% of plays with a 98th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
1-6
Q2
0-1
Q3
0-1
Q4
3-0

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 4.0 wins
Strength of Record
87th
-2.8 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
7th
full season
7th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
7th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~3.5 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs Southern MissSun Belt#133W 310+32.5100%6.1Q4
2vs South CarolinaSEC#16L 631-9.50%-13.4Q1
3vs GeorgiaSEC#4L 1213-13.80%15.9Q1
4vs OhioMid-American#46W 416+6.9100%30.7Q4
5@ Ole MissSEC#10W 2017-21.1100%28.0Q1
7vs VanderbiltSEC#41L 1320-1.00%-3.2Q2
8@ FloridaSEC#25L 2048-11.40%-12.6Q1
9vs AuburnSEC#67L 1024-0.50%-10.8Q3
10@ TennesseeSEC#11L 1828-15.00%8.0Q1
12vs Murray StateMVFCW 486+41.8100%-0.5Q4
13@ TexasSEC#5L 1431-23.00%11.0Q1
14vs LouisvilleACC#21L 1441-9.60%-15.5Q1

12 played · 4-8. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Kentucky, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-11.8+7.6+27.06-13163128-3-13-118-011-15Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 98th
SR 111thYPP 83rdEPA 95th
RushingEff 28th
SR 11thYPP 29thEPA 41st
Defense
Pass defenseEff 39th
SR 36thYPP 70thEPA 35th
Rush defenseEff 56th
SR 80thYPP 53rdEPA 46th
Dropback rate 46%Tempo -5.4 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 44th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 44%1st · Defense allowed: 48%1st2nd · Offense: 44%2nd · Defense allowed: 43%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 38%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 41%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 47.0Q1 · Allowed: 38.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 81.0Q2 · Allowed: 84.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 40.0Q3 · Allowed: 68.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 59.0Q4 · Allowed: 55.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledKentuckyOffenseDefense
Kentucky Offense vs Defense, 2024
Offensive EffRanked 83rd
-2.5
Field position: +0.5Finishing drives: -3.0
Field position +0.5Finishing drives -3.0= -2.5
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 46th · Finishing 90th

Defensive EffRanked 35th
+5.0
Field position: -0.1Finishing drives: +5.0
Field position -0.1Finishing drives +5.0= +5.0
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 71st · Finishing 33rd

1.82 points per drive on offense, 1.90 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 27.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(177)46% / 54%44%5.8
Q2(211)42% / 58%44%5.3
Q3(144)44% / 56%42%5.2
Q4(195)54% / 46%42%5.9
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(125)10.639%5.7
2nd(110)9.738%6.8
3rd(86)9.726%4.6
4th(17)7.653%11.8
All (338)36%6.1
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(208)9.747%5.6
2nd(122)7.050%4.4
3rd(51)5.653%5.1
4th(8)2.150%3.3
All (389)49%5.1

Kentucky, all games.