FanBoardHQ

USC

University of Southern California · 2026 · Big Ten

Efficiency
+22.1
8th FBS
Record
3-0
Conf. record
Conf. finish
4th
proj. of 18
USC Fanboard →

USC is 3-0 and ranked 8th in overall efficiency. Their 1st-ranked offense is the engine, backed by an 11th-ranked defense. They run the ball on 55% of offensive plays with a 98th-ranked rushing attack and pass the ball on the remaining 45% of plays with a 1st-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-0
+3 left
Q2
0-0
+3 left
Q3
0-0
+2 left
Q4
3-0
+1 left

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 9.5 wins
Strength of Record
26th
+0.3 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
102nd
full season
24th
AP poll
#12
FanBoardHQ has them 4 spots higher
Conf. sched. difficulty
24th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~4.9 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
0vs San José StateMountain West#124W 4226+40.0100%16.5Q4
1vs Fresno StatePac-12#79W 390+27.9100%30.3Q4
2vs LouisianaSun Belt#73W 4930+27.1100%24.5Q4
3@ RutgersBig Ten#122Preview+34.198%Q4
4vs OregonBig Ten#24Preview+11.876%Q2
5vs WashingtonBig Ten#33Preview+16.283%Q2
6@ Penn StateBig Ten#16Preview+2.656%Q1
8@ WisconsinBig Ten#70Preview+21.490%Q3
9vs Ohio StateBig Ten#2Preview-0.349%Q1
11@ IndianaBig Ten#5Preview-3.741%Q1
12vs MarylandBig Ten#46Preview+18.987%Q3
13@ UCLABig Ten#31Preview+9.771%Q2

3 played · 3-0. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on USC, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

+2.4+15.2+27.9173024Week 0Week 2
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 1st
SR 1stYPP 3rdEPA 1st
RushingEff 98th
SR 63rdYPP 90thEPA 112th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 73rd
SR 22ndYPP 48thEPA 118th
Rush defenseEff 5th
SR 8thYPP 13thEPA 5th
Dropback rate 45%Tempo -1.2 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 99th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 52%1st · Defense allowed: 41%1st2nd · Offense: 61%2nd · Defense allowed: 39%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 65%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 32%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 21.0Q1 · Allowed: 3.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 56.0Q2 · Allowed: 7.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 14.0Q3 · Allowed: 10.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 28.0Q4 · Allowed: 35.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledUSCOffenseDefense
USC Offense vs Defense, 2026
Offensive EffRanked 1st
+17.3
Field position: +1.6Finishing drives: +15.7
Field position +1.6Finishing drives +15.7= +17.3
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 22nd · Finishing 2nd

Defensive EffRanked 11th
+8.6
Field position: +2.0Finishing drives: +6.6
Field position +2.0Finishing drives +6.6= +8.6
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 7th · Finishing 17th

3.73 points per drive on offense, 1.53 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 29.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(65)45% / 55%55%6.1
Q2(60)52% / 48%67%9.3
Q3(45)56% / 44%44%5.8
Q4(43)30% / 70%63%7.5
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(39)10.364%8.8
2nd(36)8.472%11.3
3rd(21)7.462%10.2
4th(2)4.0100%21.5
All (98)67%10.3
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(64)9.545%4.7
2nd(34)6.350%4.3
3rd(14)3.171%5.7
4th(3)2.033%2.0
All (115)50%4.6

USC, all games.