FanBoardHQ

Oregon

University of Oregon · 2024 · Big Ten

FanBoardHQ CFP
#3
Efficiency
+21.8
6th FBS
Record
13-1
Conf. record
10-0
Conf. finish
1st
of 18
Oregon Fanboard →

Oregon went 13-1 and was ranked 3rd in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 3rd-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 17th-ranked defense. They passed the ball on 51% of offensive plays with a 4th-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 49% of plays with a 10th-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
2-1
Q2
4-0
Q3
2-0
Q4
5-0

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
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14
Expected: 13.0 wins
Strength of Record
2nd
+4.2 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
27th
full season
27th
CFP committee
#1
FanBoardHQ has them 2 spots lower
Conf. sched. difficulty
84th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.4 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs IdahoBig SkyW 2414+31.0100%1.1Q4
2vs Boise StateMountain West#19W 3734+11.4100%12.2Q2
3@ Oregon StatePac-12#100W 4914+30.4100%27.2Q4
5@ UCLABig Ten#58W 3413+17.5100%26.6Q3
6vs Michigan StateBig Ten#73W 3110+27.4100%22.9Q4
7vs Ohio StateBig Ten#1W 3231-5.4100%29.3Q1
8@ PurdueBig Ten#129W 350+32.3100%22.6Q4
9vs IllinoisBig Ten#18W 389+16.5100%33.4Q2
10@ MichiganBig Ten#23W 3817+7.9100%34.9Q2
11vs MarylandBig Ten#89W 3918+24.2100%19.1Q4
12@ WisconsinBig Ten#60W 1613+13.9100%11.6Q2
14vs WashingtonBig Ten#53W 4921+19.7100%31.6Q3
15vs Penn StateBig Ten#6W 4537-0.7100%29.9Q1
Postseason
vs Ohio StateBig Ten#1L 2141-8.20%-1.5Q1

14 played · 13-1. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Oregon, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

+2.8+17.5+32.11122727232923333519123230Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 4th
SR 4thYPP 3rdEPA 4th
RushingEff 10th
SR 6thYPP 17thEPA 10th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 5th
SR 4thYPP 6thEPA 6th
Rush defenseEff 70th
SR 49thYPP 72ndEPA 77th
Dropback rate 51%Tempo +1.0 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 50th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 50%1st · Defense allowed: 40%1st2nd · Offense: 49%2nd · Defense allowed: 38%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 52%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 36%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 111.0Q1 · Allowed: 60.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 180.0Q2 · Allowed: 102.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 51.0Q3 · Allowed: 41.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 126.0Q4 · Allowed: 62.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledOregonOffenseDefense
Oregon Offense vs Defense, 2024
Offensive EffRanked 3rd
+14.1
Field position: -0.0Finishing drives: +14.2
Field position -0.0Finishing drives +14.2= +14.1
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 65th · Finishing 3rd

Defensive EffRanked 17th
+8.7
Field position: +1.3Finishing drives: +7.4
Field position +1.3Finishing drives +7.4= +8.7
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 24th · Finishing 21st

2.93 points per drive on offense, 1.71 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 30.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(225)56% / 44%54%7.1
Q2(268)57% / 43%53%7.7
Q3(208)50% / 50%44%6.1
Q4(243)38% / 62%47%5.5
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(189)10.050%7.8
2nd(147)8.350%8.4
3rd(125)7.445%7.9
4th(13)3.854%8.7
All (474)49%8.0
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(242)9.649%5.2
2nd(167)6.648%5.2
3rd(52)4.065%5.2
4th(9)1.867%7.6
All (470)51%5.3

Oregon, all games.