FanBoardHQ

Pittsburgh

University of Pittsburgh · 2023 · ACC

FanBoardHQ CFP
#103
Efficiency
-3.3
78th FBS
Record
3-9
Conf. record
2-6
Conf. finish
T-11th
of 14
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Pittsburgh went 3-9 and was ranked 103rd in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 46th-ranked defense carried them, with a 105th-ranked offense. They passed the ball on 53% of offensive plays with an 82nd-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 47% of plays with a 109th-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-4
Q2
1-2
Q3
0-1
Q4
2-2

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 3.0 wins
Strength of Record
116th
-4.6 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
40th
full season
40th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
45th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~5.1 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs WoffordSouthernW 457+38.7100%2.9Q4
2vs CincinnatiBig 12#106L 2127+2.40%-11.6Q4
3@ West VirginiaBig 12#25L 617-16.90%2.0Q1
4vs North CarolinaACC#40L 2441-8.50%-16.0Q2
5@ Virginia TechACC#58L 2138-11.90%-6.8Q2
7vs LouisvilleACC#21W 3821-13.6100%26.7Q2
8@ Wake ForestACC#96L 1721-1.50%-6.0Q3
9@ Notre DameFBS Independents#13L 758-28.10%-12.0Q1
10vs Florida StateACC#9L 724-15.90%-2.5Q1
11vs SyracuseACC#81L 1328+1.60%-19.8Q4
12vs Boston CollegeACC#73W 2416+4.5100%1.8Q4
13@ DukeACC#32L 1930-17.30%1.5Q1

12 played · 3-9. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Pittsburgh, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-16.1+3.4+22.93-122-16-727-6-12-3-2022Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 82nd
SR 88thYPP 50thEPA 95th
RushingEff 109th
SR 69thYPP 125thEPA 114th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 53rd
SR 53rdYPP 77thEPA 53rd
Rush defenseEff 17th
SR 23rdYPP 16thEPA 16th
Dropback rate 53%Tempo -3.6 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 53rd on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 43%1st · Defense allowed: 38%1st2nd · Offense: 37%2nd · Defense allowed: 43%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 35%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 39%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 54.0Q1 · Allowed: 44.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 72.0Q2 · Allowed: 96.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 37.0Q3 · Allowed: 96.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 59.0Q4 · Allowed: 58.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledPittsburghOffenseDefense
Pittsburgh Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 105th
-6.2
Field position: -0.8Finishing drives: -5.3
Field position -0.8Finishing drives -5.3= -6.2
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 93rd · Finishing 102nd

Defensive EffRanked 46th
+2.4
Field position: -1.4Finishing drives: +3.8
Field position -1.4Finishing drives +3.8= +2.4
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 113th · Finishing 37th

1.53 points per drive on offense, 2.04 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 26.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(176)43% / 57%38%5.4
Q2(193)56% / 44%43%5.5
Q3(166)54% / 46%40%5.3
Q4(162)63% / 37%33%5.7
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(148)10.345%8.5
2nd(112)9.730%5.4
3rd(108)8.531%4.5
4th(8)10.125%3.4
All (376)36%6.3
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(157)9.640%4.5
2nd(112)6.843%5.3
3rd(41)4.737%3.2
4th(11)1.573%2.5
All (321)42%4.5

Pittsburgh, all games.