FanBoardHQ

Florida State

Florida State University · 2023 · ACC

FanBoardHQ CFP
#9
Efficiency
+15.3
16th FBS
Record
13-1
Conf. record
9-0
Conf. finish
1st
of 14
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Florida State went 13-1 and was ranked 9th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 8th-ranked defense carried them, with a 32nd-ranked offense. They passed the ball on 53% of offensive plays with a 31st-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 47% of plays with a 74th-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
3-1
Q2
3-0
Q3
4-0
Q4
3-0

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Expected: 13.0 wins
Strength of Record
7th
+3.9 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
53rd
full season
53rd
CFP committee
#5
FanBoardHQ has them 4 spots lower
Conf. sched. difficulty
66th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.0 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs LSUSEC#16W 4524-1.3100%36.3Q1
2vs Southern MissSun Belt#119W 6613+33.9100%18.3Q4
3@ Boston CollegeACC#73W 3129+17.7100%0.1Q3
4@ ClemsonACC#24W 3124+1.2100%16.0Q1
6vs Virginia TechACC#58W 3917+12.3100%24.5Q3
7vs SyracuseACC#81W 413+23.0100%20.1Q4
8vs DukeACC#32W 3820+6.8100%26.2Q2
9@ Wake ForestACC#96W 4116+17.2100%27.3Q3
10@ PittsburghACC#103W 247+15.9100%14.6Q3
11vs Miami-FLACC#48W 2720+10.6100%13.2Q2
12vs North AlabamaUACW 5813+41.2100%0.3Q4
13@ FloridaSEC#66W 2415+8.5100%16.1Q2
14vs LouisvilleACC#21W 166+2.4100%21.5Q1
Postseason
vs GeorgiaSEC#5L 363-10.20%-22.3Q1

14 played · 13-1. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Florida State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

+2.9+18.2+33.4361801624202627151301621Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 31st
SR 39thYPP 30thEPA 30th
RushingEff 74th
SR 72ndYPP 71stEPA 81st
Defense
Pass defenseEff 3rd
SR 1stYPP 2ndEPA 5th
Rush defenseEff 43rd
SR 25thYPP 86thEPA 53rd
Dropback rate 53%Tempo -0.7 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 58th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 44%1st · Defense allowed: 38%1st2nd · Offense: 42%2nd · Defense allowed: 38%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 39%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 33%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 76.0Q1 · Allowed: 48.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 139.0Q2 · Allowed: 115.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 110.0Q3 · Allowed: 54.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 131.0Q4 · Allowed: 34.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledFlorida StateOffenseDefense
Florida State Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 32nd
+5.0
Field position: -0.2Finishing drives: +5.2
Field position -0.2Finishing drives +5.2= +5.0
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 73rd · Finishing 29th

Defensive EffRanked 8th
+10.2
Field position: +0.8Finishing drives: +9.5
Field position +0.8Finishing drives +9.5= +10.2
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 37th · Finishing 7th

2.62 points per drive on offense, 1.45 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 31.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(236)53% / 47%42%5.4
Q2(250)60% / 40%44%6.7
Q3(194)56% / 44%45%8.0
Q4(204)35% / 65%37%6.2
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(165)10.048%8.4
2nd(152)7.447%8.1
3rd(126)8.235%5.6
4th(11)4.645%8.2
All (454)44%7.5
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(234)9.541%6.1
2nd(132)8.435%4.5
3rd(54)6.046%5.7
4th(10)3.150%2.5
All (430)40%5.5

Florida State, all games.