Arkansas State
Arkansas State University · 2025 · Sun Belt
Arkansas State went 7-6 and was ranked 90th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 92nd-ranked defense carried them, with an 111th-ranked offense. They passed the ball on 58% of offensive plays with an 113th-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 42% of plays with a 126th-ranked rushing attack.
Quadrant record
By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.
Projected wins
Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.
The resume
Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).
| Wk | Opponent | Conf | Opp rank | Result | Exp. margin | Win prob | GameScore | Quad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Southeast Missouri State | OVC-Big South | — | W 42–24 | +20.2 | 100% | -5.2 | Q4 |
| 2 | vs Arkansas | SEC | #104 | L 14–56 | -14.4 | 0% | -33.5 | Q3 |
| 3 | vs Iowa State | Big 12 | #32 | L 16–24 | -18.8 | 0% | -1.3 | Q2 |
| 4 | @ Kennesaw State | Conference USA | #61 | L 21–28 | -7.6 | 0% | -10.2 | Q4 |
| 5 | @ ULM | Sun Belt | #128 | L 16–28 | +7.1 | 0% | -36.0 | Q4 |
| 6 | vs Texas State | Sun Belt | #79 | W 31–30 | -8.4 | 100% | -2.4 | Q4 |
| 8 | @ South Alabama | Sun Belt | #114 | W 15–14 | -2.4 | 100% | -8.4 | Q4 |
| 9 | vs Georgia Southern | Sun Belt | #87 | W 34–24 | +3.0 | 100% | -4.7 | Q4 |
| 10 | @ Troy | Sun Belt | #80 | W 23–10 | -5.1 | 100% | 7.0 | Q4 |
| 11 | vs Southern Miss | Sun Belt | #95 | L 21–27 | +2.3 | 0% | -19.1 | Q4 |
| 13 | vs Louisiana | Sun Belt | #100 | L 30–34 | +3.6 | 0% | -22.9 | Q4 |
| 14 | @ Appalachian State | Sun Belt | #110 | W 30–29 | +0.4 | 100% | -9.7 | Q4 |
| Postseason | ||||||||
| — | vs Missouri State | Conference USA | #85 | W 34–28 | -2.5 | 100% | -3.4 | Q4 |
13 played · 7-6. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.
The season
The model’s read on Arkansas State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.
Passing & rushing
Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.
Their offense vs. what their defense allows.
Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.
What kind of team is this?
Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.
Field position 80th · Finishing 115th
Field position 80th · Finishing 94th
1.53 points per drive on offense, 1.78 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 31.
Play-calling & efficiency
What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.
| Quarter (att.) | Pass / rush | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1(186) | 55% / 45% | 39% | 6.7 |
| Q2(273) | 60% / 40% | 42% | 4.8 |
| Q3(228) | 57% / 43% | 43% | 4.9 |
| Q4(268) | 56% / 44% | 45% | 5.1 |
| Down (att.) | Avg. to go | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st(196) | 9.9 | 52% | 6.4 |
| 2nd(195) | 7.9 | 42% | 5.6 |
| 3rd(138) | 8.4 | 36% | 6.0 |
| 4th(16) | 4.9 | 63% | 5.4 |
| All (546) | — | 45% | 6.0 |
| Down (att.) | Avg. to go | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st(220) | 9.7 | 37% | 4.2 |
| 2nd(119) | 7.1 | 36% | 4.6 |
| 3rd(61) | 4.6 | 52% | 4.4 |
| 4th(9) | 1.4 | 67% | 1.9 |
| All (409) | — | 40% | 4.3 |
Arkansas State, all games.