FanBoardHQ

Troy

Troy University · 2025 · Sun Belt

FanBoardHQ CFP
#80
Efficiency
-9.1
97th FBS
Record
8-6
Conf. record
6-2
Conf. finish
T-2nd
of 14
Troy Fanboard →

Troy went 8-6 and was ranked 80th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 78th-ranked defense carried them, with a 107th-ranked offense. They passed the ball on 52% of offensive plays with a 120th-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 48% of plays with a 129th-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-0
Q2
0-3
Q3
1-1
Q4
7-2

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Expected: 8.0 wins
Strength of Record
72nd
-3.6 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
103rd
full season
103rd
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
124th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~7.4 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs NichollsSouthlandW 3820+22.9100%-13.6Q4
2@ ClemsonACC#53L 1627-19.80%-0.1Q2
3vs MemphisAmerican Athletic#58L 728-9.40%-19.4Q3
4@ BuffaloMid-American#113W 2117+3.8100%-9.9Q4
6vs South AlabamaSun Belt#114W 3124+5.5100%-13.6Q4
7@ Texas StateSun Belt#79W 4841-11.5100%-2.7Q3
8@ ULMSun Belt#128W 3714+9.4100%6.7Q4
9vs LouisianaSun Belt#100W 3523+6.0100%-1.2Q4
10vs Arkansas StateSun Belt#90L 1023+5.10%-27.7Q4
12@ Old DominionSun Belt#37L 033-20.30%-18.8Q2
13vs Georgia StateSun Belt#134W 3119+13.2100%-11.4Q4
14@ Southern MissSun Belt#95W 2818-0.8100%1.9Q4
15@ James MadisonSun Belt#22L 1431-21.50%-3.2Q2
Postseason
vs Jacksonville StateConference USA#83L 1317+2.50%-15.2Q4

14 played · 8-6. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Troy, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-24.9-10.5+4.0-14-0-19-10-14-37-1-28-19-112-3Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 120th
SR 115thYPP 125thEPA 116th
RushingEff 129th
SR 116thYPP 128thEPA 129th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 73rd
SR 79thYPP 77thEPA 61st
Rush defenseEff 97th
SR 77thYPP 111thEPA 97th
Dropback rate 52%Tempo +5.0 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 91st on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 39%1st · Defense allowed: 41%1st2nd · Offense: 35%2nd · Defense allowed: 39%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 41%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 41%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 38.0Q1 · Allowed: 93.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 88.0Q2 · Allowed: 80.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 44.0Q3 · Allowed: 85.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 132.0Q4 · Allowed: 71.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledTroyOffenseDefense
Troy Offense vs Defense, 2025
Offensive EffRanked 107th
-6.8
Field position: +1.1Finishing drives: -7.9
Field position +1.1Finishing drives -7.9= -6.8
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 29th · Finishing 122nd

Defensive EffRanked 78th
-1.6
Field position: -2.0Finishing drives: +0.3
Field position -2.0Finishing drives +0.3= -1.6
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 122nd · Finishing 66th

1.76 points per drive on offense, 1.87 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 32.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(199)55% / 45%38%4.9
Q2(285)52% / 48%40%4.2
Q3(186)48% / 52%34%4.7
Q4(247)55% / 45%40%5.3
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(162)10.143%6.1
2nd(146)9.035%4.8
3rd(150)8.835%5.1
4th(24)5.146%5.5
All (483)38%5.4
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(214)10.136%4.4
2nd(145)7.534%3.5
3rd(64)5.150%4.4
4th(11)1.555%1.5
All (434)38%4.0

Troy, all games.

Troy Football 2025 — Efficiency & Rankings · FanBoardHQ