FanBoardHQ

Central Michigan

Central Michigan University · 2022 · Mid-American

FanBoardHQ CFP
#115
Efficiency
-15.5
117th FBS
Record
4-8
Conf. record
3-5
Conf. finish
T-9th
of 12
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Central Michigan went 4-8 and was ranked 115th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 103rd-ranked defense carried them, with a 125th-ranked offense. They ran the ball on 51% of offensive plays with an 88th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 49% of plays with a 122nd-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-1
Q2
0-1
Q3
0-1
Q4
4-5

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 4.0 wins
Strength of Record
112th
-5.9 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
113th
full season
113th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
123rd
a 25th-ranked team would win ~7.3 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1@ Oklahoma StateBig 12#40L 4458-24.20%-15.8Q2
2vs South AlabamaSun Belt#53L 2438-12.20%-19.3Q4
3vs BucknellPatriotW 410+28.3100%-12.8Q4
4@ Penn StateBig Ten#8L 1433-36.90%3.9Q1
5@ ToledoMid-American#69L 1738-14.30%-25.0Q3
6vs Ball StateMid-American#108L 1617+1.40%-17.9Q4
7@ AkronMid-American#127W 2821+0.4100%-11.5Q4
8vs Bowling GreenMid-American#104L 1834+4.20%-35.8Q4
10@ Northern IllinoisMid-American#122W 3522+0.6100%-0.4Q4
11vs BuffaloMid-American#87W 3127-5.1100%-5.4Q4
12vs Western MichiganMid-American#110L 1012+3.90%-21.0Q4
13@ Eastern MichiganMid-American#75L 1938-8.30%-24.8Q4

12 played · 4-8. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Central Michigan, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-32.6-15.9+0.8-16-19-134-25-18-11-36-0-5-21-25Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 122nd
SR 121stYPP 125thEPA 121st
RushingEff 88th
SR 108thYPP 68thEPA 90th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 88th
SR 81stYPP 83rdEPA 94th
Rush defenseEff 102nd
SR 80thYPP 109thEPA 109th
Dropback rate 49%Tempo -1.2 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 70th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 40%1st · Defense allowed: 45%1st2nd · Offense: 43%2nd · Defense allowed: 39%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 39%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 37%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 72.0Q1 · Allowed: 94.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 52.0Q2 · Allowed: 107.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 69.0Q3 · Allowed: 42.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 84.0Q4 · Allowed: 71.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledCentral MichiganOffenseDefense
Central Michigan Offense vs Defense, 2022
Offensive EffRanked 125th
-11.1
Field position: -1.0Finishing drives: -10.1
Field position -1.0Finishing drives -10.1= -11.1
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 104th · Finishing 123rd

Defensive EffRanked 103rd
-5.1
Field position: -2.2Finishing drives: -3.0
Field position -2.2Finishing drives -3.0= -5.1
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 123rd · Finishing 92nd

1.80 points per drive on offense, 2.02 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 30.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(196)48% / 52%39%5.2
Q2(197)54% / 46%33%4.6
Q3(189)48% / 52%44%6.6
Q4(227)56% / 44%44%6.0
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(148)10.238%5.2
2nd(127)9.343%6.8
3rd(122)8.230%4.7
4th(22)5.450%5.6
All (419)38%5.6
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(199)9.841%5.2
2nd(133)7.542%6.1
3rd(47)5.751%6.1
4th(11)1.664%4.0
All (390)43%5.6

Central Michigan, all games.