FanBoardHQ

Toledo

University of Toledo · 2022 · Mid-American

FanBoardHQ CFP
#69
Efficiency
-3.9
76th FBS
Record
9-5
Conf. record
6-3
Conf. finish
2nd
of 12
Toledo Fanboard →

Toledo went 9-5 and was ranked 69th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 75th-ranked defense carried them, with a 79th-ranked offense. They ran the ball on 53% of offensive plays with an 85th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 47% of plays with a 55th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-1
Q2
0-0
Q3
0-0
Q4
9-4

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Expected: 9.0 wins
Strength of Record
66th
-2.9 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
124th
full season
124th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
130th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~8.1 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs Long Island UniversityNECW 370+36.9100%-14.5Q4
2vs MassachusettsFBS Independents#131W 5510+25.6100%12.3Q4
3@ Ohio StateBig Ten#5L 2177-32.50%-12.5Q1
4@ San Diego StateMountain West#79L 1417+0.40%-7.4Q4
5vs Central MichiganMid-American#115W 3817+14.3100%5.7Q4
6@ Northern IllinoisMid-American#122W 5232+12.2100%19.5Q4
7vs Kent StateMid-American#94W 5231+7.8100%8.0Q4
8@ BuffaloMid-American#87L 2734+1.00%-11.2Q4
9@ Eastern MichiganMid-American#75W 2724+3.3100%-2.0Q4
11vs Ball StateMid-American#108W 2821+13.0100%-11.1Q4
12vs Bowling GreenMid-American#104L 3542+15.70%-26.1Q4
13@ Western MichiganMid-American#110L 1420+10.00%-18.7Q4
14vs OhioMid-American#62W 177+0.2100%5.3Q4
Postseason
vs LibertyFBS Independents#71W 2119+0.7100%-4.2Q4

14 played · 9-5. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Toledo, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-22.5-3.3+15.8-1512-12-76198-11-2-11-26-195Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 55th
SR 52ndYPP 72ndEPA 49th
RushingEff 85th
SR 88thYPP 102ndEPA 76th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 32nd
SR 41stYPP 31stEPA 25th
Rush defenseEff 75th
SR 34thYPP 97thEPA 85th
Dropback rate 47%Tempo +4.0 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 80th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 43%1st · Defense allowed: 35%1st2nd · Offense: 40%2nd · Defense allowed: 36%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 44%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 37%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 69.0Q1 · Allowed: 94.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 151.0Q2 · Allowed: 65.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 75.0Q3 · Allowed: 57.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 128.0Q4 · Allowed: 114.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledToledoOffenseDefense
Toledo Offense vs Defense, 2022
Offensive EffRanked 79th
-2.4
Field position: +0.1Finishing drives: -2.5
Field position +0.1Finishing drives -2.5= -2.4
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 58th · Finishing 81st

Defensive EffRanked 75th
-0.9
Field position: -0.4Finishing drives: -0.4
Field position -0.4Finishing drives -0.4= -0.9
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 82nd · Finishing 69th

2.28 points per drive on offense, 1.70 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 31.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(224)44% / 56%38%5.3
Q2(264)45% / 55%47%6.0
Q3(237)48% / 52%39%5.6
Q4(266)47% / 53%45%5.7
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(171)10.349%8.2
2nd(147)8.639%6.3
3rd(118)8.131%4.0
4th(20)3.950%7.2
All (456)41%6.5
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(269)9.840%4.5
2nd(177)7.341%5.1
3rd(82)6.056%5.8
4th(7)2.386%5.3
All (535)43%4.9

Toledo, all games.