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Ball State

Ball State University · 2022 · Mid-American

FanBoardHQ CFP
#108
Efficiency
-14.1
112th FBS
Record
5-7
Conf. record
3-5
Conf. finish
T-9th
of 12
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Ball State went 5-7 and was ranked 108th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 79th-ranked defense carried them, with a 126th-ranked offense. They passed the ball on 55% of offensive plays with a 128th-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 45% of plays with an 112th-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-1
Q2
0-0
Q3
0-1
Q4
5-5

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 5.0 wins
Strength of Record
103rd
-5.1 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
121st
full season
121st
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
116th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~7.1 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1@ TennesseeSEC#4L 1059-40.10%-20.7Q1
2vs Western MichiganMid-American#110L 3037+5.30%-22.9Q4
3vs Murray StateOVCW 310+25.8100%-13.6Q4
4@ Georgia SouthernSun Belt#92L 2334-9.50%-15.9Q4
5vs Northern IllinoisMid-American#122W 4438+7.5100%-17.8Q4
6@ Central MichiganMid-American#115W 1716-1.4100%-11.7Q4
7vs UConnFBS Independents#99W 2521+3.5100%-12.0Q4
8vs Eastern MichiganMid-American#75L 1620-1.40%-15.2Q4
10@ Kent StateMid-American#94W 2720-7.9100%0.1Q4
11@ ToledoMid-American#69L 2128-13.00%-7.0Q3
12vs OhioMid-American#62L 1832-7.30%-20.4Q4
13@ Miami-OHMid-American#101L 1718-3.50%-12.7Q4

12 played · 5-7. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Ball State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-21.1-11.4-1.7-21-23-14-16-18-12-12-150-7-20-13Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 128th
SR 118thYPP 135thEPA 132nd
RushingEff 112th
SR 117thYPP 70thEPA 120th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 60th
SR 72ndYPP 47thEPA 57th
Rush defenseEff 104th
SR 117thYPP 80thEPA 99th
Dropback rate 55%Tempo +6.1 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 99th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 43%1st · Defense allowed: 45%1st2nd · Offense: 40%2nd · Defense allowed: 42%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 37%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 43%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 44.0Q1 · Allowed: 71.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 75.0Q2 · Allowed: 106.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 81.0Q3 · Allowed: 52.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 68.0Q4 · Allowed: 86.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledBall StateOffenseDefense
Ball State Offense vs Defense, 2022
Offensive EffRanked 126th
-11.2
Field position: -1.9Finishing drives: -9.3
Field position -1.9Finishing drives -9.3= -11.2
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 123rd · Finishing 120th

Defensive EffRanked 79th
-1.8
Field position: -1.5Finishing drives: -0.4
Field position -1.5Finishing drives -0.4= -1.8
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 108th · Finishing 68th

1.73 points per drive on offense, 1.94 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 30.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(179)51% / 49%41%5.1
Q2(249)67% / 33%39%6.1
Q3(205)45% / 55%46%5.5
Q4(236)55% / 45%37%4.7
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(172)10.048%6.3
2nd(159)7.943%6.0
3rd(138)7.429%4.0
4th(11)7.418%3.1
All (480)40%5.5
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(212)9.939%5.5
2nd(130)7.136%4.4
3rd(38)2.966%8.8
4th(9)1.056%0.9
All (389)41%5.3

Ball State, all games.

Ball State Football 2022 — Efficiency & Rankings · FanBoardHQ