FanBoardHQ

Utah State

Utah State University · 2023 · Mountain West

FanBoardHQ CFP
#94
Efficiency
-9.3
104th FBS
Record
6-7
Conf. record
4-4
Conf. finish
T-6th
of 12
Utah State Fanboard →

Utah State went 6-7 and was ranked 94th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 86th-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 122nd-ranked defense. They ran the ball on 50% of offensive plays with a 32nd-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 50% of plays with an 85th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-0
Q2
0-4
Q3
0-1
Q4
6-2

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 6.0 wins
Strength of Record
88th
-4.5 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
105th
full season
105th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
88th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.4 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1@ IowaBig Ten#30L 1424-15.40%-7.5Q2
2vs Idaho StateBig SkyW 7828+21.1100%17.6Q4
3@ Air ForceMountain West#45L 2139-15.90%-19.5Q2
4vs James MadisonSun Belt#27L 3845-15.00%-1.8Q2
5@ UConnFBS Independents#122W 3433+4.5100%-13.3Q4
6vs Colorado StateMountain West#97W 4424+2.7100%4.9Q4
7vs Fresno StateMountain West#57L 3237-5.10%-11.3Q4
8@ San José StateMountain West#67L 2142-13.80%-16.2Q2
10@ San Diego StateMountain West#108W 3224-1.8100%-6.5Q4
11vs NevadaMountain West#131W 4124+13.9100%-0.0Q4
12vs Boise StateMountain West#49L 1045-13.40%-24.8Q3
13@ New MexicoMountain West#115W 4441+2.4100%-8.8Q4
Postseason
vs Georgia StateSun Belt#77L 2245-3.00%-33.5Q4

13 played · 6-7. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Utah State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-21.4-3.6+14.2-718-20-2-135-11-16-6-0-25-9Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 85th
SR 89thYPP 87thEPA 88th
RushingEff 32nd
SR 51stYPP 16thEPA 39th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 88th
SR 83rdYPP 67thEPA 95th
Rush defenseEff 131st
SR 131stYPP 134thEPA 128th
Dropback rate 50%Tempo +1.4 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 82nd on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 42%1st · Defense allowed: 48%1st2nd · Offense: 43%2nd · Defense allowed: 45%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 40%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 44%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 59.0Q1 · Allowed: 132.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 133.0Q2 · Allowed: 126.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 96.0Q3 · Allowed: 63.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 108.0Q4 · Allowed: 124.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledUtah StateOffenseDefense
Utah State Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 86th
-2.8
Field position: +0.0Finishing drives: -2.8
Field position +0.0Finishing drives -2.8= -2.8
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 65th · Finishing 86th

Defensive EffRanked 122nd
-8.2
Field position: -0.9Finishing drives: -7.3
Field position -0.9Finishing drives -7.3= -8.2
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 95th · Finishing 122nd

2.07 points per drive on offense, 2.24 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 31.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(196)52% / 48%40%5.3
Q2(254)52% / 48%41%6.7
Q3(236)56% / 44%44%6.4
Q4(225)47% / 53%42%6.3
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(192)10.140%7.0
2nd(147)8.542%7.0
3rd(113)7.633%5.4
4th(16)6.450%3.3
All (468)39%6.5
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(210)10.244%5.6
2nd(151)7.244%6.8
3rd(66)6.842%5.2
4th(16)1.975%4.3
All (443)45%5.9

Utah State, all games.