Air Force
United States Air Force Academy · 2023 · Mountain West
Air Force went 9-4 and was ranked 45th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 41st-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 65th-ranked defense. They ran the ball on 85% of offensive plays with a 38th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 15% of plays with a 132nd-ranked passing attack.
Quadrant record
By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.
Projected wins
Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.
The resume
Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).
| Wk | Opponent | Conf | Opp rank | Result | Exp. margin | Win prob | GameScore | Quad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Robert Morris | Big South | — | W 42–7 | +40.4 | 100% | 7.6 | Q4 |
| 2 | vs Sam Houston | Conference USA | #118 | W 13–3 | +17.3 | 100% | -3.4 | Q4 |
| 3 | vs Utah State | Mountain West | #94 | W 39–21 | +15.9 | 100% | 14.1 | Q4 |
| 4 | @ San José State | Mountain West | #67 | W 45–20 | -0.7 | 100% | 29.5 | Q2 |
| 5 | vs San Diego State | Mountain West | #108 | W 49–10 | +16.8 | 100% | 24.6 | Q4 |
| 7 | vs Wyoming | Mountain West | #42 | W 34–27 | +6.6 | 100% | 4.3 | Q4 |
| 8 | @ Navy | American Athletic | #102 | W 17–6 | +15.3 | 100% | 1.3 | Q4 |
| 9 | @ Colorado State | Mountain West | #97 | W 30–13 | +10.3 | 100% | 13.3 | Q4 |
| 10 | vs Army | FBS Independents | #83 | L 3–23 | +11.5 | 0% | -27.1 | Q4 |
| 11 | @ Hawai'i | Mountain West | #109 | L 13–27 | +16.7 | 0% | -30.1 | Q4 |
| 12 | vs UNLV | Mountain West | #50 | L 27–31 | +4.2 | 0% | -4.5 | Q3 |
| 13 | @ Boise State | Mountain West | #49 | L 19–27 | -5.8 | 0% | 1.0 | Q2 |
| Postseason | ||||||||
| — | vs James Madison | Sun Belt | #27 | W 31–21 | -4.6 | 100% | 19.3 | Q2 |
13 played · 9-4. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.
The season
The model’s read on Air Force, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.
Passing & rushing
Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.
Their offense vs. what their defense allows.
Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.
What kind of team is this?
Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.
Field position 76th · Finishing 35th
Field position 14th · Finishing 78th
2.54 points per drive on offense, 1.66 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 31.
Play-calling & efficiency
What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.
| Quarter (att.) | Pass / rush | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1(164) | 9% / 91% | 44% | 5.6 |
| Q2(220) | 19% / 81% | 48% | 7.3 |
| Q3(207) | 10% / 90% | 51% | 6.9 |
| Q4(208) | 18% / 82% | 41% | 4.4 |
| Down (att.) | Avg. to go | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st(34) | 10.1 | 41% | 10.7 |
| 2nd(38) | 8.3 | 42% | 12.7 |
| 3rd(37) | 8.1 | 35% | 5.0 |
| 4th(5) | 6.2 | 60% | 10.8 |
| All (114) | — | 40% | 9.5 |
| Down (att.) | Avg. to go | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st(310) | 9.8 | 44% | 5.7 |
| 2nd(231) | 6.8 | 47% | 5.5 |
| 3rd(125) | 5.1 | 52% | 5.0 |
| 4th(19) | 2.1 | 74% | 5.8 |
| All (685) | — | 47% | 5.5 |
Air Force, all games.