FanBoardHQ

Western Michigan

Western Michigan University · 2024 · Mid-American

FanBoardHQ CFP
#95
Efficiency
-10.5
102nd FBS
Record
6-7
Conf. record
5-3
Conf. finish
5th
of 12
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Western Michigan went 6-7 and was ranked 95th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 74th-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 120th-ranked defense. They ran the ball on 56% of offensive plays with a 96th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 44% of plays with a 45th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-1
Q2
0-2
Q3
0-1
Q4
6-3

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 6.0 wins
Strength of Record
89th
-4.5 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
92nd
full season
92nd
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
116th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~7.3 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1@ WisconsinBig Ten#60L 1428-18.40%-6.3Q2
2@ Ohio StateBig Ten#1L 056-43.20%-12.5Q1
3vs Bethune-CookmanSWACW 5931+34.9100%-11.2Q4
5@ MarshallSun Belt#37L 2027-17.40%-0.2Q2
6@ Ball StateMid-American#122W 4542+5.4100%-9.5Q4
7vs AkronMid-American#112W 3424+6.2100%-13.6Q4
8@ BuffaloMid-American#64W 4841-6.3100%0.7Q4
9vs Kent StateMid-American#134W 5221+26.6100%-0.0Q4
11vs Northern IllinoisMid-American#65L 2842-5.80%-19.8Q4
12@ Bowling GreenMid-American#72L 1331-12.00%-23.3Q3
13@ Central MichiganMid-American#116L 1416+3.40%-18.9Q4
14vs Eastern MichiganMid-American#108W 2618+5.2100%-8.9Q4
Postseason
vs South AlabamaSun Belt#83L 2330-7.40%-12.6Q4

13 played · 6-7. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Western Michigan, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-21.3-11.3-1.2-6-13-11-0-10-141-0-20-23-19-9Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 45th
SR 52ndYPP 50thEPA 39th
RushingEff 96th
SR 93rdYPP 89thEPA 95th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 133rd
SR 135thYPP 128thEPA 135th
Rush defenseEff 135th
SR 137thYPP 135thEPA 135th
Dropback rate 44%Tempo -1.6 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 70th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 48%1st · Defense allowed: 52%1st2nd · Offense: 45%2nd · Defense allowed: 45%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 39%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 49%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 73.0Q1 · Allowed: 65.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 124.0Q2 · Allowed: 127.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 80.0Q3 · Allowed: 97.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 84.0Q4 · Allowed: 89.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledWestern MichiganOffenseDefense
Western Michigan Offense vs Defense, 2024
Offensive EffRanked 74th
-1.3
Field position: +0.1Finishing drives: -1.4
Field position +0.1Finishing drives -1.4= -1.3
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 56th · Finishing 79th

Defensive EffRanked 120th
-8.4
Field position: +0.1Finishing drives: -8.4
Field position +0.1Finishing drives -8.4= -8.4
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 64th · Finishing 123rd

2.40 points per drive on offense, 2.67 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 32.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(195)47% / 53%43%6.6
Q2(220)45% / 55%45%5.8
Q3(158)37% / 63%49%6.8
Q4(209)42% / 58%44%5.8
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(132)10.258%9.6
2nd(101)9.245%5.2
3rd(88)8.227%4.8
4th(17)5.941%5.9
All (338)45%6.9
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(217)9.641%5.2
2nd(147)6.446%6.8
3rd(66)4.247%4.9
4th(14)1.479%5.6
All (444)45%5.7

Western Michigan, all games.