FanBoardHQ

Navy

United States Naval Academy · 2022 · American Athletic

FanBoardHQ CFP
#95
Efficiency
-2.7
73rd FBS
Record
4-8
Conf. record
4-4
Conf. finish
T-6th
of 11
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Navy went 4-8 and was ranked 95th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 45th-ranked defense carried them, with a 103rd-ranked offense. They ran the ball on 84% of offensive plays with a 105th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 16% of plays with an 115th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-1
Q2
2-2
Q3
0-2
Q4
2-3

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 4.0 wins
Strength of Record
106th
-4.4 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
64th
full season
64th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
65th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~5.6 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs DelawareCAAL 714+7.60%-16.9Q4
2vs MemphisAmerican Athletic#65L 1337-2.80%-21.3Q4
4@ East CarolinaAmerican Athletic#58W 2320-8.6100%5.9Q2
5@ Air ForceMountain West#45L 1013-11.40%4.8Q2
6vs TulsaAmerican Athletic#90W 5321+4.7100%21.2Q4
7@ SMUAmerican Athletic#64L 3440-8.00%-2.6Q3
8vs HoustonAmerican Athletic#55L 2038-3.30%-20.7Q3
9vs TempleAmerican Athletic#116W 2720+10.8100%-12.6Q4
10@ CincinnatiAmerican Athletic#39L 1020-10.40%-3.9Q2
11vs Notre DameFBS Independents#21L 3235-14.40%7.1Q1
12@ UCFAmerican Athletic#44W 1714-10.9100%12.8Q2
15vs ArmyFBS Independents#84L 1720+3.00%-6.8Q4

12 played · 4-8. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Navy, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-17.9-0.0+17.8-17-216521-3-21-13-4713-7Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 115th
SR 130thYPP 63rdEPA 108th
RushingEff 105th
SR 120thYPP 118thEPA 89th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 123rd
SR 98thYPP 126thEPA 128th
Rush defenseEff 26th
SR 10thYPP 49thEPA 32nd
Dropback rate 16%Tempo +3.9 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 79th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 34%1st · Defense allowed: 38%1st2nd · Offense: 36%2nd · Defense allowed: 37%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 43%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 43%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 44.0Q1 · Allowed: 88.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 67.0Q2 · Allowed: 60.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 51.0Q3 · Allowed: 62.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 91.0Q4 · Allowed: 71.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledNavyOffenseDefense
Navy Offense vs Defense, 2022
Offensive EffRanked 103rd
-6.5
Field position: +0.2Finishing drives: -6.8
Field position +0.2Finishing drives -6.8= -6.5
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 49th · Finishing 106th

Defensive EffRanked 45th
+2.8
Field position: +0.4Finishing drives: +2.4
Field position +0.4Finishing drives +2.4= +2.8
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 55th · Finishing 44th

1.72 points per drive on offense, 1.84 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 32.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(183)9% / 91%36%4.9
Q2(219)17% / 83%39%5.4
Q3(194)9% / 91%39%4.7
Q4(222)29% / 71%36%5.0
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(55)9.929%6.1
2nd(39)9.433%8.9
3rd(35)9.126%7.6
4th(7)6.429%6.3
All (136)29%7.3
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(264)9.936%4.9
2nd(233)7.237%4.8
3rd(155)5.343%3.9
4th(30)2.267%3.2
All (682)39%4.6

Navy, all games.