FanBoardHQ

Cincinnati

University of Cincinnati · 2022 · American Athletic

FanBoardHQ CFP
#39
Efficiency
+4.9
51st FBS
Record
9-4
Conf. record
6-2
Conf. finish
T-2nd
of 11
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Cincinnati went 9-4 and was ranked 39th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 27th-ranked defense carried them, with a 76th-ranked offense. They passed the ball on 55% of offensive plays with an 87th-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 45% of plays with an 113th-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-2
Q2
0-2
Q3
3-0
Q4
6-0

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 9.0 wins
Strength of Record
35th
-0.6 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
73rd
full season
73rd
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
75th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~5.9 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1@ ArkansasSEC#38L 2431-6.60%4.9Q2
2vs Kennesaw StateAtlantic SunW 6310+33.3100%12.0Q4
3vs Miami-OHMid-American#101W 3817+18.3100%3.6Q4
4vs IndianaBig Ten#89W 4524+11.1100%17.5Q4
5@ TulsaAmerican Athletic#90W 3121+6.9100%7.9Q3
6vs South FloridaAmerican Athletic#130W 2824+23.2100%-12.5Q4
8@ SMUAmerican Athletic#64W 2927-0.3100%7.6Q3
9@ UCFAmerican Athletic#44L 2125-3.20%2.6Q2
10vs NavyAmerican Athletic#95W 2010+10.4100%6.1Q4
11vs East CarolinaAmerican Athletic#58W 2725+4.6100%2.4Q3
12@ TempleAmerican Athletic#116W 233+12.9100%10.6Q4
13vs TulaneAmerican Athletic#19L 2427-4.40%6.2Q1
Postseason
vs LouisvilleACC#27L 724-6.30%-5.1Q1

13 played · 9-4. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Cincinnati, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-10.1+2.5+15.15124178-138362116Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 87th
SR 81stYPP 109thEPA 83rd
RushingEff 113th
SR 116thYPP 108thEPA 105th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 15th
SR 24thYPP 13thEPA 13th
Rush defenseEff 44th
SR 47thYPP 41stEPA 52nd
Dropback rate 55%Tempo +2.6 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 86th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 43%1st · Defense allowed: 36%1st2nd · Offense: 39%2nd · Defense allowed: 37%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 40%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 41%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 61.0Q1 · Allowed: 60.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 143.0Q2 · Allowed: 89.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 78.0Q3 · Allowed: 55.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 69.0Q4 · Allowed: 63.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledCincinnatiOffenseDefense
Cincinnati Offense vs Defense, 2022
Offensive EffRanked 76th
-2.1
Field position: +1.2Finishing drives: -3.3
Field position +1.2Finishing drives -3.3= -2.1
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 24th · Finishing 85th

Defensive EffRanked 27th
+6.4
Field position: +1.3Finishing drives: +5.1
Field position +1.3Finishing drives +5.1= +6.4
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 23rd · Finishing 28th

2.27 points per drive on offense, 1.64 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 30.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(186)51% / 49%40%5.3
Q2(243)61% / 39%44%7.0
Q3(205)55% / 45%47%5.9
Q4(193)48% / 52%30%4.9
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(182)10.346%6.7
2nd(142)8.942%6.6
3rd(117)8.735%5.4
4th(8)9.350%7.6
All (449)42%6.4
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(174)9.840%4.9
2nd(132)7.835%4.9
3rd(57)4.842%5.4
4th(12)1.075%3.2
All (378)39%5.2

Cincinnati, all games.

Cincinnati Football 2022 — Efficiency & Rankings · FanBoardHQ