FanBoardHQ

UCF

University of Central Florida · 2022 · American Athletic

FanBoardHQ CFP
#44
Efficiency
+5.4
48th FBS
Record
9-5
Conf. record
6-3
Conf. finish
T-2nd
of 11
UCF Fanboard →

UCF went 9-5 and was ranked 44th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 35th-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 65th-ranked defense. They ran the ball on 55% of offensive plays with a 26th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 45% of plays with a 59th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
1-1
Q2
0-3
Q3
3-0
Q4
5-1

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Expected: 9.0 wins
Strength of Record
42nd
-0.9 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
67th
full season
67th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
81st
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.2 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs South Carolina StateMEACW 5610+41.7100%-3.2Q4
2vs LouisvilleACC#27L 1420-3.00%2.4Q2
3@ Florida AtlanticConference USA#97W 4014+8.6100%19.4Q3
4vs Georgia TechACC#76W 2710+13.1100%10.3Q4
6vs SMUAmerican Athletic#64W 4119+5.7100%20.3Q4
7vs TempleAmerican Athletic#116W 7013+18.9100%20.4Q4
8@ East CarolinaAmerican Athletic#58L 1334-0.40%-18.4Q2
9vs CincinnatiAmerican Athletic#39W 2521+3.2100%7.8Q3
10@ MemphisAmerican Athletic#65W 3528-0.1100%12.4Q3
11@ TulaneAmerican Athletic#19W 3831-9.4100%21.9Q1
12vs NavyAmerican Athletic#95L 1417+10.90%-10.1Q4
13@ South FloridaAmerican Athletic#130W 4639+18.2100%-2.6Q4
14@ TulaneAmerican Athletic#19L 2845-9.40%0.7Q1
Postseason
vs DukeACC#35L 1330-3.40%-5.7Q2

14 played · 9-5. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on UCF, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-15.2+1.8+18.7-3219102020-1881222-10-31Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 59th
SR 48thYPP 71stEPA 65th
RushingEff 26th
SR 20thYPP 34thEPA 23rd
Defense
Pass defenseEff 87th
SR 80thYPP 75thEPA 97th
Rush defenseEff 52nd
SR 26thYPP 95thEPA 43rd
Dropback rate 45%Tempo +6.9 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 71st on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 48%1st · Defense allowed: 43%1st2nd · Offense: 46%2nd · Defense allowed: 37%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 49%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 41%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 110.0Q1 · Allowed: 79.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 106.0Q2 · Allowed: 84.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 97.0Q3 · Allowed: 78.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 128.0Q4 · Allowed: 86.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledUCFOffenseDefense
UCF Offense vs Defense, 2022
Offensive EffRanked 35th
+4.9
Field position: -0.8Finishing drives: +5.7
Field position -0.8Finishing drives +5.7= +4.9
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 92nd · Finishing 32nd

Defensive EffRanked 65th
+0.5
Field position: +1.1Finishing drives: -0.7
Field position +1.1Finishing drives -0.7= +0.5
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 32nd · Finishing 74th

2.73 points per drive on offense, 1.99 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 31.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(251)40% / 60%50%6.5
Q2(274)47% / 53%45%5.8
Q3(236)47% / 53%47%6.6
Q4(294)50% / 50%49%6.1
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(175)10.050%6.8
2nd(168)7.943%6.8
3rd(126)7.737%6.1
4th(18)6.444%6.9
All (487)44%6.6
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(286)9.647%5.7
2nd(186)6.849%6.1
3rd(84)3.663%6.5
4th(12)1.692%3.6
All (568)51%5.9

UCF, all games.