FanBoardHQ

East Carolina

East Carolina University · 2022 · American Athletic

FanBoardHQ CFP
#58
Efficiency
+3.1
60th FBS
Record
8-5
Conf. record
4-4
Conf. finish
T-6th
of 11
East Carolina Fanboard →

East Carolina went 8-5 and was ranked 58th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 43rd-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 70th-ranked defense. They passed the ball on 55% of offensive plays with a 36th-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 45% of plays with a 65th-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-1
Q2
0-1
Q3
2-2
Q4
6-1

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 8.0 wins
Strength of Record
59th
-1.9 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
79th
full season
79th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
71st
a 25th-ranked team would win ~5.8 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs NC StateACC#36L 2021-0.30%1.9Q3
2vs Old DominionSun Belt#117W 3921+17.9100%3.1Q4
3vs CampbellBig SouthW 4910+20.4100%17.2Q4
4vs NavyAmerican Athletic#95L 2023+8.60%-5.5Q4
5vs South FloridaAmerican Athletic#130W 4828+18.6100%12.6Q4
6@ TulaneAmerican Athletic#19L 924-11.70%-0.6Q1
7vs MemphisAmerican Athletic#65W 4745+3.1100%1.6Q4
8vs UCFAmerican Athletic#44W 3413+0.4100%26.9Q3
9@ BYUFBS Independents#57W 2724+0.1100%4.5Q3
11@ CincinnatiAmerican Athletic#39L 2527-4.60%5.6Q2
12vs HoustonAmerican Athletic#55L 342+2.60%-39.7Q3
13@ TempleAmerican Athletic#116W 4946+11.1100%-6.3Q4
Postseason
vs Coastal CarolinaSun Belt#66W 5329+11.7100%18.4Q4

13 played · 8-5. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on East Carolina, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-34.4-6.4+21.62317-613-122756-40-6Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 36th
SR 49thYPP 39thEPA 36th
RushingEff 65th
SR 74thYPP 43rdEPA 75th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 105th
SR 101stYPP 117thEPA 99th
Rush defenseEff 36th
SR 72ndYPP 30thEPA 35th
Dropback rate 55%Tempo +6.0 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 87th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 46%1st · Defense allowed: 47%1st2nd · Offense: 41%2nd · Defense allowed: 43%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 46%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 45%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 77.0Q1 · Allowed: 44.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 129.0Q2 · Allowed: 127.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 101.0Q3 · Allowed: 80.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 99.0Q4 · Allowed: 82.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledEast CarolinaOffenseDefense
East Carolina Offense vs Defense, 2022
Offensive EffRanked 43rd
+3.5
Field position: -0.8Finishing drives: +4.3
Field position -0.8Finishing drives +4.3= +3.5
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 94th · Finishing 37th

Defensive EffRanked 70th
-0.0
Field position: +1.4Finishing drives: -1.4
Field position +1.4Finishing drives -1.4= -0.0
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 21st · Finishing 81st

2.42 points per drive on offense, 2.13 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 31.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(229)56% / 44%42%6.6
Q2(223)61% / 39%47%7.1
Q3(193)51% / 49%49%6.8
Q4(254)53% / 47%41%6.4
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(191)10.050%6.9
2nd(142)8.442%6.7
3rd(143)7.543%8.6
4th(21)7.743%7.5
All (497)45%7.4
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(209)9.742%5.5
2nd(147)6.940%6.0
3rd(38)6.361%8.1
4th(8)2.850%2.3
All (402)43%5.9

East Carolina, all games.