FanBoardHQ

Utah State

Utah State University · 2022 · Mountain West

FanBoardHQ CFP
#98
Efficiency
-14.0
111th FBS
Record
6-7
Conf. record
5-3
Conf. finish
T-3rd
of 12
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Utah State went 6-7 and was ranked 98th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 105th-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 107th-ranked defense. They ran the ball on 54% of offensive plays with a 126th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 46% of plays with a 125th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-1
Q2
0-1
Q3
1-2
Q4
5-3

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 6.0 wins
Strength of Record
88th
-4.1 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
84th
full season
84th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
105th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.8 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
0vs UConnFBS Independents#99W 3120+3.6100%-7.7Q4
1@ AlabamaSEC#3L 055-42.80%-21.0Q1
2vs Weber StateBig SkyL 735-8.20%-29.3Q4
4vs UNLVMountain West#103L 2434+0.20%-27.9Q4
5@ BYUFBS Independents#57L 2638-17.10%-13.0Q3
6vs Air ForceMountain West#45W 3427-17.2100%10.8Q3
7@ Colorado StateMountain West#120W 1713+2.4100%-12.4Q4
8@ WyomingMountain West#83L 1428-6.70%-21.1Q4
10vs New MexicoMountain West#128W 2710+9.9100%-7.3Q4
11@ Hawai'iMountain West#125W 4134+7.1100%-12.7Q4
12vs San José StateMountain West#78W 3531-4.8100%-3.0Q4
13@ Boise StateMountain West#50L 2342-20.30%-11.7Q2
Postseason
vs MemphisAmerican Athletic#65L 1038-16.80%-26.1Q3

13 played · 6-7. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Utah State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-26.1-9.3+7.5-8-21-29-28-1311-12-21-7-13-3-12Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 125th
SR 122ndYPP 124thEPA 123rd
RushingEff 126th
SR 125thYPP 120thEPA 123rd
Defense
Pass defenseEff 98th
SR 89thYPP 90thEPA 107th
Rush defenseEff 91st
SR 88thYPP 108thEPA 92nd
Dropback rate 46%Tempo +7.2 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 95th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 40%1st · Defense allowed: 44%1st2nd · Offense: 38%2nd · Defense allowed: 37%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 38%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 43%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 58.0Q1 · Allowed: 95.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 82.0Q2 · Allowed: 130.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 57.0Q3 · Allowed: 72.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 59.0Q4 · Allowed: 85.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledUtah StateOffenseDefense
Utah State Offense vs Defense, 2022
Offensive EffRanked 105th
-7.2
Field position: +0.1Finishing drives: -7.3
Field position +0.1Finishing drives -7.3= -7.2
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 59th · Finishing 107th

Defensive EffRanked 107th
-5.8
Field position: -0.5Finishing drives: -5.3
Field position -0.5Finishing drives -5.3= -5.8
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 85th · Finishing 107th

1.49 points per drive on offense, 2.42 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 31.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(241)46% / 54%43%5.1
Q2(235)52% / 48%34%4.7
Q3(212)40% / 60%35%5.0
Q4(245)44% / 56%42%5.1
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(149)10.146%7.0
2nd(140)8.039%5.0
3rd(120)7.728%4.5
4th(17)5.535%5.4
All (426)38%5.6
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(243)10.136%4.6
2nd(170)7.138%4.2
3rd(78)5.345%4.6
4th(16)2.381%5.7
All (507)39%4.5

Utah State, all games.