FanBoardHQ

Virginia

University of Virginia · 2024 · ACC

FanBoardHQ CFP
#76
Efficiency
-1.7
72nd FBS
Record
5-7
Conf. record
3-5
Conf. finish
T-10th
of 17
Virginia Fanboard →

Virginia went 5-7 and was ranked 76th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 65th-ranked defense carried them, with an 89th-ranked offense. They passed the ball on 52% of offensive plays with an 114th-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 48% of plays with a 61st-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-5
Q2
1-0
Q3
2-0
Q4
2-2

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 5.0 wins
Strength of Record
78th
-2.6 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
31st
full season
31st
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
26th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~4.8 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs RichmondCoastal AthleticW 3413+19.2100%9.0Q4
2@ Wake ForestACC#102W 3130+2.1100%-2.9Q3
3vs MarylandBig Ten#89L 1327+0.70%-16.0Q4
4@ Coastal CarolinaSun Belt#96W 4324+3.7100%16.8Q4
6vs Boston CollegeACC#50W 2414-5.8100%14.7Q3
7vs LouisvilleACC#21L 2024-15.20%9.4Q1
8@ ClemsonACC#22L 3148-20.40%-7.2Q1
9vs North CarolinaACC#84L 1441+1.20%-33.6Q4
11@ PittsburghACC#55W 2419-7.7100%10.9Q2
12@ Notre DameFBS Independents#2L 1435-30.00%1.4Q1
13vs SMUACC#14L 733-15.70%-14.2Q1
14@ Virginia TechACC#52L 1737-16.40%-8.9Q1

12 played · 5-7. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Virginia, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-29.6-8.4+12.89-3-1617159-7-34111-14-9Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 114th
SR 108thYPP 109thEPA 118th
RushingEff 61st
SR 79thYPP 68thEPA 56th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 95th
SR 63rdYPP 113thEPA 100th
Rush defenseEff 47th
SR 45thYPP 28thEPA 55th
Dropback rate 52%Tempo -1.7 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 49th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 43%1st · Defense allowed: 39%1st2nd · Offense: 38%2nd · Defense allowed: 44%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 38%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 44%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 50.0Q1 · Allowed: 54.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 73.0Q2 · Allowed: 130.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 51.0Q3 · Allowed: 88.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 90.0Q4 · Allowed: 68.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledVirginiaOffenseDefense
Virginia Offense vs Defense, 2024
Offensive EffRanked 89th
-3.3
Field position: -0.1Finishing drives: -3.2
Field position -0.1Finishing drives -3.2= -3.3
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 69th · Finishing 91st

Defensive EffRanked 65th
+0.2
Field position: +1.4Finishing drives: -1.2
Field position +1.4Finishing drives -1.2= +0.2
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 20th · Finishing 79th

1.82 points per drive on offense, 2.30 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 30.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(183)50% / 50%38%6.0
Q2(249)55% / 45%39%4.9
Q3(189)53% / 47%43%5.5
Q4(200)56% / 44%41%5.8
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(184)10.142%6.7
2nd(127)9.435%5.9
3rd(110)8.330%5.1
4th(22)5.036%2.6
All (443)37%5.9
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(162)9.843%4.7
2nd(136)7.040%5.7
3rd(70)5.546%4.9
4th(10)2.070%3.8
All (378)43%5.1

Virginia, all games.