FanBoardHQ

Wisconsin

University of Wisconsin–Madison · 2025 · Big Ten

FanBoardHQ CFP
#74
Efficiency
+1.1
66th FBS
Record
4-8
Conf. record
2-7
Conf. finish
T-14th
of 18
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Wisconsin went 4-8 and was ranked 74th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 19th-ranked defense carried them, with an 115th-ranked offense. They ran the ball on 56% of offensive plays with an 81st-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 44% of plays with an 118th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
1-6
Q2
1-0
Q3
0-1
Q4
2-1

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 4.0 wins
Strength of Record
78th
-2.2 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
1st
full season
1st
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
10th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~3.9 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs Miami-OHMid-American#88W 170+10.1100%9.4Q4
2vs Middle TennesseeConference USA#129W 4210+23.9100%12.1Q4
3@ AlabamaSEC#10L 1438-18.70%-15.5Q1
4vs MarylandBig Ten#94L 1027+4.50%-22.3Q4
6@ MichiganBig Ten#19L 1024-15.00%1.2Q1
7vs IowaBig Ten#16L 037-12.70%-18.9Q1
8vs Ohio StateBig Ten#4L 034-24.90%-8.8Q1
9@ OregonBig Ten#2L 721-27.30%12.2Q1
11vs WashingtonBig Ten#20W 1310-14.2100%18.6Q1
12@ IndianaBig Ten#1L 731-33.30%8.9Q1
13vs IllinoisBig Ten#18W 2710-8.4100%26.3Q2
14@ MinnesotaBig Ten#48L 717-1.00%-10.4Q3

12 played · 4-8. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Wisconsin, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-18.4+2.0+22.4912-16-221-19-91219926-10Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 118th
SR 93rdYPP 102ndEPA 130th
RushingEff 81st
SR 110thYPP 62ndEPA 74th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 42nd
SR 48thYPP 37thEPA 46th
Rush defenseEff 28th
SR 45thYPP 24thEPA 22nd
Dropback rate 44%Tempo -6.5 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 51st on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 37%1st · Defense allowed: 47%1st2nd · Offense: 40%2nd · Defense allowed: 45%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 39%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 41%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 17.0Q1 · Allowed: 68.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 27.0Q2 · Allowed: 73.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 41.0Q3 · Allowed: 69.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 55.0Q4 · Allowed: 38.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledWisconsinOffenseDefense
Wisconsin Offense vs Defense, 2025
Offensive EffRanked 115th
-7.5
Field position: +1.8Finishing drives: -9.3
Field position +1.8Finishing drives -9.3= -7.5
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 19th · Finishing 125th

Defensive EffRanked 19th
+7.7
Field position: +1.3Finishing drives: +6.3
Field position +1.3Finishing drives +6.3= +7.7
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 29th · Finishing 23rd

0.88 points per drive on offense, 1.82 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 30.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(180)39% / 61%37%4.4
Q2(169)46% / 54%31%4.2
Q3(152)43% / 57%41%6.2
Q4(182)46% / 54%45%4.7
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(112)10.146%5.5
2nd(97)7.644%5.7
3rd(77)8.426%3.5
4th(12)4.058%7.8
All (298)41%5.1
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(170)9.832%4.5
2nd(128)8.037%5.1
3rd(75)5.243%3.9
4th(12)3.175%5.1
All (385)37%4.6

Wisconsin, all games.