FanBoardHQ

Oregon

University of Oregon · 2025 · Big Ten

FanBoardHQ CFP
#2
Efficiency
+25.6
4th FBS
Record
13-2
Conf. record
8-1
Conf. finish
3rd
of 18
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Oregon went 13-2 and was ranked 2nd in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Offense (6th) and defense (6th) were about even. They ran the ball on 53% of offensive plays with a 2nd-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 47% of plays with an 8th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
5-2
Q2
2-0
Q3
1-0
Q4
5-0

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
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Expected: 13.0 wins
Strength of Record
2nd
+4.8 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
6th
full season
6th
CFP committee
#5
FanBoardHQ has them 3 spots higher
Conf. sched. difficulty
22nd
a 25th-ranked team would win ~4.8 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs Montana StateBig SkyW 5913+21.5100%37.1Q4
2vs Oklahoma StateBig 12#131W 693+40.0100%29.3Q4
3@ NorthwesternBig Ten#49W 3414+19.2100%30.7Q2
4vs Oregon StatePac-12#127W 417+41.9100%15.3Q4
5@ Penn StateBig Ten#39W 3024+7.6100%17.8Q1
7vs IndianaBig Ten#1L 2030-3.20%20.3Q1
8@ RutgersBig Ten#72W 5610+23.4100%36.1Q3
9vs WisconsinBig Ten#74W 217+27.3100%14.5Q4
11@ IowaBig Ten#16W 1816+6.3100%19.8Q1
12vs MinnesotaBig Ten#48W 4213+29.1100%26.8Q4
13vs USCBig Ten#17W 4227+10.3100%29.2Q1
14@ WashingtonBig Ten#20W 2614+4.8100%33.8Q1
Postseason
vs James MadisonSun Belt#22W 5134+18.8100%29.4Q2
vs Texas TechBig 12#8W 230+0.2100%41.7Q1
vs IndianaBig Ten#1L 2256-6.00%-12.3Q1

15 played · 13-2. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Oregon, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

+3.0+18.5+34.1372931151820361520272934Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 8th
SR 6thYPP 8thEPA 12th
RushingEff 2nd
SR 3rdYPP 2ndEPA 2nd
Defense
Pass defenseEff 7th
SR 4thYPP 5thEPA 11th
Rush defenseEff 23rd
SR 26thYPP 17thEPA 24th
Dropback rate 47%Tempo -2.1 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 41st on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 51%1st · Defense allowed: 35%1st2nd · Offense: 46%2nd · Defense allowed: 36%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 49%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 43%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 128.0Q1 · Allowed: 37.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 165.0Q2 · Allowed: 63.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 127.0Q3 · Allowed: 45.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 85.0Q4 · Allowed: 118.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledOregonOffenseDefense
Oregon Offense vs Defense, 2025
Offensive EffRanked 6th
+15.5
Field position: +2.0Finishing drives: +13.5
Field position +2.0Finishing drives +13.5= +15.5
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 18th · Finishing 7th

Defensive EffRanked 6th
+11.3
Field position: +2.2Finishing drives: +9.1
Field position +2.2Finishing drives +9.1= +11.3
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 11th · Finishing 8th

3.02 points per drive on offense, 1.54 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 32.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(243)50% / 50%50%7.0
Q2(273)55% / 45%53%7.7
Q3(209)40% / 60%54%8.5
Q4(233)39% / 61%37%5.1
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(163)10.051%7.8
2nd(158)8.048%8.2
3rd(111)7.945%9.5
4th(16)3.563%6.0
All (448)49%8.3
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(268)9.950%7.0
2nd(154)6.843%5.1
3rd(72)4.451%5.1
4th(16)1.456%3.5
All (510)48%6.0

Oregon, all games.