Air Force
United States Air Force Academy · 2024 · Mountain West
Air Force went 5-7 and was ranked 103rd in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 96th-ranked defense carried them, with an 116th-ranked offense. They ran the ball on 82% of offensive plays with a 109th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 18% of plays with a 138th-ranked passing attack.
Quadrant record
By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.
Projected wins
Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.
The resume
Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).
| Wk | Opponent | Conf | Opp rank | Result | Exp. margin | Win prob | GameScore | Quad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Merrimack | FCS Independents | — | W 21–6 | +20.8 | 100% | -14.6 | Q4 |
| 2 | vs San José State | Mountain West | #88 | L 7–17 | -2.7 | 0% | -18.9 | Q4 |
| 3 | @ Baylor | Big 12 | #33 | L 3–31 | -27.9 | 0% | -12.9 | Q1 |
| 5 | @ Wyoming | Mountain West | #118 | L 19–31 | -2.8 | 0% | -24.2 | Q4 |
| 6 | vs Navy | American Athletic | #35 | L 7–34 | -17.2 | 0% | -24.3 | Q3 |
| 7 | @ New Mexico | Mountain West | #107 | L 37–52 | -1.0 | 0% | -38.5 | Q4 |
| 8 | vs Colorado State | Mountain West | #74 | L 13–21 | -0.9 | 0% | -22.4 | Q4 |
| 10 | @ Army | American Athletic | #28 | L 3–20 | -27.0 | 0% | -5.0 | Q2 |
| 11 | vs Fresno State | Mountain West | #93 | W 36–28 | -4.4 | 100% | 2.0 | Q4 |
| 12 | vs Oregon State | Pac-12 | #100 | W 28–0 | +1.7 | 100% | 14.7 | Q4 |
| 13 | @ Nevada | Mountain West | #119 | W 22–19 | -4.9 | 100% | -5.4 | Q4 |
| 14 | @ San Diego State | Mountain West | #125 | W 31–20 | +3.4 | 100% | 1.1 | Q4 |
12 played · 5-7. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.
The season
The model’s read on Air Force, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.
Passing & rushing
Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.
Their offense vs. what their defense allows.
Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.
What kind of team is this?
Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.
Field position 121st · Finishing 112th
Field position 112th · Finishing 90th
1.83 points per drive on offense, 2.19 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 28.
Play-calling & efficiency
What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.
| Quarter (att.) | Pass / rush | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1(193) | 11% / 89% | 44% | 4.3 |
| Q2(216) | 19% / 81% | 43% | 5.5 |
| Q3(183) | 17% / 83% | 39% | 4.3 |
| Q4(195) | 28% / 72% | 46% | 5.3 |
| Down (att.) | Avg. to go | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st(45) | 9.9 | 38% | 7.2 |
| 2nd(44) | 9.0 | 34% | 7.5 |
| 3rd(49) | 9.5 | 22% | 5.5 |
| 4th(9) | 9.4 | 44% | 9.4 |
| All (147) | — | 32% | 6.9 |
| Down (att.) | Avg. to go | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st(269) | 9.8 | 39% | 4.5 |
| 2nd(221) | 6.8 | 45% | 4.2 |
| 3rd(125) | 4.4 | 54% | 4.4 |
| 4th(25) | 2.2 | 72% | 4.9 |
| All (640) | — | 45% | 4.4 |
Air Force, all games.