FanBoardHQ

Arizona State

Arizona State University · 2023 · Pac-12

FanBoardHQ CFP
#100
Efficiency
-7.1
93rd FBS
Record
3-9
Conf. record
2-7
Conf. finish
T-9th
of 12
Arizona State Fanboard →

Arizona State went 3-9 and was ranked 100th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 75th-ranked defense carried them, with a 91st-ranked offense. They passed the ball on 58% of offensive plays with an 115th-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 42% of plays with a 69th-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
1-3
Q2
1-3
Q3
0-1
Q4
1-2

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 3.0 wins
Strength of Record
104th
-3.8 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
5th
full season
5th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
12th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~4.3 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs Southern UtahUACW 2421+10.9100%-15.7Q4
2vs Oklahoma StateBig 12#17L 1527-11.60%-7.7Q3
3vs Fresno StateMountain West#57L 029-2.90%-34.5Q4
4vs USCPac-12#22L 2842-17.60%-3.1Q2
5@ CaliforniaPac-12#53L 2124-14.00%3.0Q2
6vs ColoradoPac-12#80L 2427-3.30%-7.3Q4
8@ WashingtonPac-12#1L 715-31.50%15.7Q1
9vs Washington StatePac-12#64W 3827-12.3100%17.2Q2
10@ UtahPac-12#29L 355-18.10%-26.3Q2
11@ UCLAPac-12#34W 177-20.5100%24.0Q1
12vs OregonPac-12#6L 1349-33.90%-24.9Q1
13vs ArizonaPac-12#15L 2359-22.80%-25.2Q1

12 played · 3-9. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Arizona State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-29.8-5.3+19.3-16-8-35-33-71617-2624-25-25Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 115th
SR 117thYPP 101stEPA 114th
RushingEff 69th
SR 65thYPP 93rdEPA 59th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 69th
SR 72ndYPP 56thEPA 68th
Rush defenseEff 124th
SR 123rdYPP 117thEPA 126th
Dropback rate 58%Tempo -1.6 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 38th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 41%1st · Defense allowed: 49%1st2nd · Offense: 34%2nd · Defense allowed: 43%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 37%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 44%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 52.0Q1 · Allowed: 90.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 64.0Q2 · Allowed: 116.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 37.0Q3 · Allowed: 64.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 55.0Q4 · Allowed: 98.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledArizona StateOffenseDefense
Arizona State Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 91st
-4.2
Field position: -1.6Finishing drives: -2.6
Field position -1.6Finishing drives -2.6= -4.2
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 116th · Finishing 84th

Defensive EffRanked 75th
-1.2
Field position: -0.6Finishing drives: -0.7
Field position -0.6Finishing drives -0.7= -1.2
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 87th · Finishing 71st

1.42 points per drive on offense, 2.65 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 25.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(167)56% / 44%40%5.1
Q2(215)60% / 40%40%5.6
Q3(196)55% / 45%35%5.2
Q4(213)59% / 41%36%4.8
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(172)10.240%6.3
2nd(151)8.729%4.4
3rd(107)8.123%4.9
4th(25)7.244%8.5
All (455)33%5.5
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(167)9.743%5.3
2nd(101)7.142%4.3
3rd(55)5.653%4.9
4th(13)1.862%2.5
All (336)45%4.8

Arizona State, all games.