FanBoardHQ

California

University of California, Berkeley · 2023 · Pac-12

FanBoardHQ CFP
#53
Efficiency
+4.2
47th FBS
Record
6-7
Conf. record
4-5
Conf. finish
T-7th
of 12
California Fanboard →

California went 6-7 and was ranked 53rd in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 44th-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 50th-ranked defense. They ran the ball on 51% of offensive plays with a 64th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 49% of plays with a 60th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
1-3
Q2
1-3
Q3
0-1
Q4
4-0

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 6.0 wins
Strength of Record
56th
-1.5 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
10th
full season
10th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
19th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~4.6 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1@ North TexasAmerican Athletic#99W 5821+12.3100%19.5Q4
2vs AuburnSEC#59L 1014+1.30%-1.2Q3
3vs IdahoBig SkyW 3117+8.8100%10.5Q4
4@ WashingtonPac-12#1L 3259-20.30%-15.5Q1
5vs Arizona StatePac-12#100W 2421+14.0100%-5.9Q4
6vs Oregon StatePac-12#20L 4052-8.90%-3.9Q1
7@ UtahPac-12#29L 1434-6.90%-8.8Q2
9vs USCPac-12#22L 4950-6.40%10.1Q2
10@ OregonPac-12#6L 1963-28.20%5.5Q1
11vs Washington StatePac-12#64W 4239-1.1100%11.1Q2
12@ StanfordPac-12#98W 2715+9.5100%6.4Q4
13@ UCLAPac-12#34W 337-9.2100%33.4Q1
Postseason
vs Texas TechBig 12#33L 1434-6.60%-7.2Q2

13 played · 6-7. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on California, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-11.5+9.0+29.519-111-15-6-4-910511633Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 60th
SR 57thYPP 67thEPA 58th
RushingEff 64th
SR 95thYPP 45thEPA 61st
Defense
Pass defenseEff 75th
SR 74thYPP 64thEPA 78th
Rush defenseEff 72nd
SR 88thYPP 31stEPA 84th
Dropback rate 49%Tempo +5.9 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 39th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 43%1st · Defense allowed: 46%1st2nd · Offense: 39%2nd · Defense allowed: 43%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 42%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 45%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 89.0Q1 · Allowed: 89.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 114.0Q2 · Allowed: 139.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 84.0Q3 · Allowed: 78.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 82.0Q4 · Allowed: 107.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledCaliforniaOffenseDefense
California Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 44th
+2.7
Field position: +1.7Finishing drives: +1.0
Field position +1.7Finishing drives +1.0= +2.7
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 18th · Finishing 51st

Defensive EffRanked 50th
+1.6
Field position: -1.4Finishing drives: +3.0
Field position -1.4Finishing drives +3.0= +1.6
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 112th · Finishing 43rd

2.17 points per drive on offense, 2.45 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 32.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(206)50% / 50%44%6.9
Q2(228)55% / 45%40%5.7
Q3(238)46% / 54%41%5.4
Q4(230)46% / 54%41%5.4
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(180)10.343%6.9
2nd(129)9.040%6.4
3rd(118)8.233%4.8
4th(16)7.431%3.3
All (443)39%6.1
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(218)9.643%5.4
2nd(153)7.039%5.2
3rd(70)5.553%6.6
4th(18)1.772%5.9
All (459)44%5.5

California, all games.