FanBoardHQ

Louisville

University of Louisville · 2025 · ACC

FanBoardHQ CFP
#29
Efficiency
+11.1
29th FBS
Record
9-4
Conf. record
4-4
Conf. finish
T-8th
of 17
Louisville Fanboard →

Louisville went 9-4 and was ranked 29th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 28th-ranked defense carried them, with a 48th-ranked offense. They passed the ball on 55% of offensive plays with a 68th-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 45% of plays with a 3rd-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
1-1
Q2
3-2
Q3
2-0
Q4
3-1

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 9.0 wins
Strength of Record
29th
-0.0 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
59th
full season
59th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
32nd
a 25th-ranked team would win ~5.0 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs Eastern KentuckyUACW 5117+40.0100%17.5Q4
2vs James MadisonSun Belt#22W 2814+4.2100%20.4Q2
4vs Bowling GreenMid-American#120W 4017+31.2100%11.5Q4
5@ PittsburghACC#40W 3427-1.9100%18.5Q2
6vs VirginiaACC#23L 2730+2.80%6.2Q2
8@ Miami-FLACC#3W 2421-16.4100%30.9Q1
9vs Boston CollegeACC#124W 3824+23.7100%-0.2Q4
10@ Virginia TechACC#102W 2816+14.7100%8.6Q3
11vs CaliforniaACC#77L 2629+18.30%-8.2Q4
12vs ClemsonACC#53L 1920+5.90%3.8Q2
13@ SMUACC#31L 638-3.60%-15.1Q1
14vs KentuckySEC#62W 410+10.6100%34.0Q3
Postseason
vs ToledoMid-American#59W 2722+5.0100%12.8Q2

13 played · 9-4. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Louisville, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-11.2+9.4+30.118201219631-09-84-1534Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 68th
SR 46thYPP 68thEPA 86th
RushingEff 3rd
SR 2ndYPP 3rdEPA 5th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 12th
SR 20thYPP 14thEPA 8th
Rush defenseEff 39th
SR 28thYPP 36thEPA 50th
Dropback rate 55%Tempo -0.3 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 46th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 50%1st · Defense allowed: 39%1st2nd · Offense: 47%2nd · Defense allowed: 38%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 41%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 35%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 83.0Q1 · Allowed: 57.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 101.0Q2 · Allowed: 65.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 81.0Q3 · Allowed: 32.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 105.0Q4 · Allowed: 90.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledLouisvilleOffenseDefense
Louisville Offense vs Defense, 2025
Offensive EffRanked 48th
+3.4
Field position: +2.6Finishing drives: +0.7
Field position +2.6Finishing drives +0.7= +3.4
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 8th · Finishing 57th

Defensive EffRanked 28th
+6.6
Field position: +0.4Finishing drives: +6.1
Field position +0.4Finishing drives +6.1= +6.6
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 53rd · Finishing 25th

2.21 points per drive on offense, 1.35 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 33.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(186)58% / 42%49%6.7
Q2(224)63% / 38%45%6.2
Q3(204)51% / 49%51%5.9
Q4(208)41% / 59%44%5.7
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(179)10.450%7.4
2nd(138)8.843%4.4
3rd(117)8.635%6.8
4th(4)4.350%15.5
All (438)44%6.3
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(196)9.849%6.4
2nd(131)6.251%5.4
3rd(48)3.948%5.4
4th(9)1.178%1.4
All (384)51%5.9

Louisville, all games.

Louisville Football 2025 — Efficiency & Rankings · FanBoardHQ