FanBoardHQ

Minnesota

University of Minnesota · 2023 · Big Ten

FanBoardHQ CFP
#74
Efficiency
-2.7
72nd FBS
Record
6-7
Conf. record
3-6
Conf. finish
T-8th
of 14
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Minnesota went 6-7 and was ranked 74th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 58th-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 76th-ranked defense. They ran the ball on 59% of offensive plays with an 83rd-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 41% of plays with a 91st-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-2
Q2
1-1
Q3
0-3
Q4
5-1

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 6.0 wins
Strength of Record
75th
-2.9 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
61st
full season
61st
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
60th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~5.7 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs NebraskaBig Ten#79W 1310+0.3100%0.3Q4
2vs Eastern MichiganMid-American#112W 256+21.3100%-3.3Q4
3@ North CarolinaACC#40L 1331-13.30%-7.8Q2
4@ NorthwesternBig Ten#47L 3437-4.60%-0.2Q3
5vs LouisianaSun Belt#87W 3524+4.8100%7.2Q4
6vs MichiganBig Ten#2L 1052-29.20%3.9Q1
8@ IowaBig Ten#30W 1210-8.8100%7.9Q2
9vs Michigan StateBig Ten#90W 2712+6.8100%4.2Q4
10vs IllinoisBig Ten#78L 2627+3.00%-5.6Q4
11@ PurdueBig Ten#92L 3049-2.90%-23.3Q3
12@ Ohio StateBig Ten#7L 337-30.70%-6.7Q1
13vs WisconsinBig Ten#60L 1428-2.60%-13.7Q3
Postseason
vs Bowling GreenMid-American#75W 3024+1.8100%2.1Q4

13 played · 6-7. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Minnesota, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-20.8-7.7+5.40-3-8-07484-6-23-7-14Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 91st
SR 93rdYPP 94thEPA 90th
RushingEff 83rd
SR 56thYPP 94thEPA 85th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 71st
SR 78thYPP 65thEPA 69th
Rush defenseEff 90th
SR 53rdYPP 92ndEPA 91st
Dropback rate 41%Tempo +1.1 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 63rd on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 43%1st · Defense allowed: 44%1st2nd · Offense: 39%2nd · Defense allowed: 38%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 39%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 48%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 51.0Q1 · Allowed: 68.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 94.0Q2 · Allowed: 95.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 50.0Q3 · Allowed: 72.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 74.0Q4 · Allowed: 101.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledMinnesotaOffenseDefense
Minnesota Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 58th
+0.3
Field position: -0.5Finishing drives: +0.8
Field position -0.5Finishing drives +0.8= +0.3
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 86th · Finishing 54th

Defensive EffRanked 76th
-1.3
Field position: +2.3Finishing drives: -3.6
Field position +2.3Finishing drives -3.6= -1.3
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 9th · Finishing 101st

1.86 points per drive on offense, 2.22 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 30.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(190)43% / 57%46%5.3
Q2(214)42% / 58%42%5.3
Q3(197)37% / 63%39%4.5
Q4(205)42% / 58%37%4.5
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(128)10.043%6.7
2nd(96)7.931%4.5
3rd(100)7.329%3.9
4th(6)7.367%10.5
All (330)36%5.3
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(223)9.743%5.0
2nd(169)6.743%4.3
3rd(74)4.845%3.6
4th(10)1.290%8.2
All (476)45%4.6

Minnesota, all games.

Minnesota Football 2023 — Efficiency & Rankings · FanBoardHQ