FanBoardHQ

Michigan

University of Michigan · 2023 · Big Ten

FanBoardHQ CFP
#2
Efficiency
+29.2
2nd FBS
Record
15-0
Conf. record
10-0
Conf. finish
1st
of 14
Michigan Fanboard →

Michigan went 15-0 and was ranked 2nd in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 3rd-ranked defense carried them, with a 4th-ranked offense. They ran the ball on 56% of offensive plays with a 46th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 44% of plays with an 11th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
5-0
Q2
0-0
Q3
5-0
Q4
5-0

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

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Expected: 15.0 wins
Strength of Record
2nd
+5.6 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
35th
full season
35th
CFP committee
#1
FanBoardHQ has them 1 spots lower
Conf. sched. difficulty
77th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.3 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs East CarolinaAmerican Athletic#128W 303+43.4100%23.2Q4
2vs UNLVMountain West#50W 357+29.6100%30.3Q3
3vs Bowling GreenMid-American#75W 316+36.5100%19.6Q4
4vs RutgersBig Ten#46W 317+29.2100%29.5Q3
5@ NebraskaBig Ten#79W 457+26.7100%34.3Q3
6@ MinnesotaBig Ten#74W 5210+29.2100%22.7Q3
7vs IndianaBig Ten#104W 527+37.2100%29.5Q4
8@ Michigan StateBig Ten#90W 490+33.2100%33.8Q4
10vs PurdueBig Ten#92W 4113+34.5100%20.3Q4
11@ Penn StateBig Ten#12W 2415+4.1100%34.6Q1
12@ MarylandBig Ten#35W 3124+17.1100%20.1Q1
13vs Ohio StateBig Ten#7W 3024+6.7100%30.4Q1
14vs IowaBig Ten#30W 260+25.9100%26.8Q3
Postseason
vs AlabamaSEC#4W 2720+7.4100%24.1Q1
vs WashingtonPac-12#1W 3413+7.6100%38.8Q1

15 played · 15-0. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Michigan, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

+2.8+17.3+31.823302030342329342035203027Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 11th
SR 6thYPP 11thEPA 10th
RushingEff 46th
SR 36thYPP 48thEPA 46th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 4th
SR 5thYPP 7thEPA 6th
Rush defenseEff 4th
SR 4thYPP 7thEPA 4th
Dropback rate 44%Tempo -10.0 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 41st on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 47%1st · Defense allowed: 35%1st2nd · Offense: 50%2nd · Defense allowed: 37%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 47%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 33%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 121.0Q1 · Allowed: 36.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 149.0Q2 · Allowed: 50.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 126.0Q3 · Allowed: 24.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 106.0Q4 · Allowed: 48.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledMichiganOffenseDefense
Michigan Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 4th
+16.3
Field position: +2.7Finishing drives: +13.6
Field position +2.7Finishing drives +13.6= +16.3
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 5th · Finishing 6th

Defensive EffRanked 3rd
+12.6
Field position: +3.2Finishing drives: +9.4
Field position +3.2Finishing drives +9.4= +12.6
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 3rd · Finishing 10th

3.02 points per drive on offense, 0.92 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 35.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(221)44% / 56%52%7.0
Q2(262)51% / 49%50%6.5
Q3(226)41% / 59%48%6.4
Q4(206)28% / 72%41%5.0
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(141)10.358%9.4
2nd(137)8.152%6.9
3rd(92)7.742%7.7
4th(10)2.880%7.6
All (380)53%8.0
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(275)9.541%5.0
2nd(168)6.648%5.6
3rd(81)4.843%4.0
4th(11)1.182%3.3
All (535)44%5.0

Michigan, all games.