FanBoardHQ

South Florida

University of South Florida · 2024 · American Athletic

FanBoardHQ CFP
#82
Efficiency
-7.0
94th FBS
Record
7-6
Conf. record
4-4
Conf. finish
T-6th
of 14
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South Florida went 7-6 and was ranked 82nd in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 86th-ranked defense carried them, with a 105th-ranked offense. They ran the ball on 50% of offensive plays with a 108th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 50% of plays with an 118th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-2
Q2
0-1
Q3
0-2
Q4
7-1

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 7.0 wins
Strength of Record
73rd
-3.3 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
85th
full season
85th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
94th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.6 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs Bethune-CookmanSWACW 483+38.3100%-10.0Q4
2@ AlabamaSEC#15L 1642-29.40%2.8Q1
3@ Southern MissSun Belt#133W 4924+16.1100%-0.2Q4
4vs Miami-FLACC#20L 1550-20.50%-15.5Q1
5@ TulaneAmerican Athletic#42L 1045-20.50%-24.5Q2
7vs MemphisAmerican Athletic#38L 321-9.70%-14.0Q3
8vs UABAmerican Athletic#121W 3525+10.7100%-8.2Q4
10@ Florida AtlanticAmerican Athletic#124W 4421+7.2100%6.2Q4
11vs NavyAmerican Athletic#35L 728-11.80%-16.7Q3
12@ CharlotteAmerican Athletic#104W 5924+6.3100%13.7Q4
13vs TulsaAmerican Athletic#131W 6330+27.1100%-1.5Q4
14@ RiceAmerican Athletic#109L 2835-0.30%-16.4Q4
Postseason
vs San José StateMountain West#88W 4139-0.1100%-7.3Q4

13 played · 7-6. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on South Florida, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-21.5-5.4+10.6-103-0-16-25-14-86-1714-2-16Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 118th
SR 98thYPP 122ndEPA 120th
RushingEff 108th
SR 130thYPP 93rdEPA 90th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 109th
SR 99thYPP 109thEPA 116th
Rush defenseEff 43rd
SR 51stYPP 40thEPA 41st
Dropback rate 50%Tempo -1.0 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 73rd on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 40%1st · Defense allowed: 41%1st2nd · Offense: 38%2nd · Defense allowed: 40%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 42%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 39%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 90.0Q1 · Allowed: 111.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 92.0Q2 · Allowed: 91.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 110.0Q3 · Allowed: 55.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 103.0Q4 · Allowed: 118.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledSouth FloridaOffenseDefense
South Florida Offense vs Defense, 2024
Offensive EffRanked 105th
-5.0
Field position: +0.1Finishing drives: -5.1
Field position +0.1Finishing drives -5.1= -5.0
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 59th · Finishing 103rd

Defensive EffRanked 86th
-2.3
Field position: +1.3Finishing drives: -3.6
Field position +1.3Finishing drives -3.6= -2.3
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 22nd · Finishing 99th

2.10 points per drive on offense, 2.09 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 32.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(227)45% / 55%38%5.6
Q2(233)59% / 41%39%5.4
Q3(224)49% / 51%40%6.2
Q4(233)51% / 49%42%6.2
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(195)10.442%5.9
2nd(127)8.539%4.4
3rd(130)7.937%7.6
4th(16)4.350%5.0
All (468)40%5.9
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(201)9.639%5.4
2nd(171)7.936%6.5
3rd(66)5.045%5.3
4th(11)1.864%5.3
All (449)39%5.8

South Florida, all games.