FanBoardHQ

Tulsa

University of Tulsa · 2024 · American Athletic

FanBoardHQ CFP
#131
Efficiency
-31.4
133rd FBS
Record
3-9
Conf. record
1-7
Conf. finish
T-13th
of 14
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Tulsa went 3-9 and was ranked 131st in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 130th-ranked defense carried them, with a 133rd-ranked offense. They passed the ball on 54% of offensive plays with a 136th-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 46% of plays with a 129th-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-0
Q2
0-1
Q3
0-1
Q4
3-7

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 3.0 wins
Strength of Record
128th
-7.6 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
132nd
full season
132nd
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
104th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.9 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs Northwestern StateSouthlandW 6228+27.0100%-22.9Q4
2@ Arkansas StateSun Belt#79L 2428-21.10%-16.4Q4
3vs Oklahoma StateBig 12#101L 1045-26.80%-48.7Q4
4@ Louisiana TechConference USA#111W 2320-20.4100%-10.4Q4
5@ North TexasAmerican Athletic#92L 2052-28.00%-32.0Q3
6vs ArmyAmerican Athletic#28L 749-40.60%-31.8Q2
8@ TempleAmerican Athletic#123L 1020-14.60%-27.5Q4
9vs UTSAAmerican Athletic#81W 4645-23.8100%-12.0Q4
10@ UABAmerican Athletic#121L 2159-19.10%-62.2Q4
12vs East CarolinaAmerican Athletic#78L 3138-20.40%-18.1Q4
13@ South FloridaAmerican Athletic#82L 3063-27.10%-36.9Q4
14vs Florida AtlanticAmerican Athletic#124L 1663-11.70%-58.2Q4

12 played · 3-9. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Tulsa, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-57.3-31.1-5.0-23-16-49-10-32-32-28-12-62-18-37-58Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 136th
SR 136thYPP 135thEPA 136th
RushingEff 129th
SR 136thYPP 122ndEPA 126th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 136th
SR 120thYPP 137thEPA 138th
Rush defenseEff 106th
SR 87thYPP 120thEPA 104th
Dropback rate 54%Tempo -6.5 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 92nd on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 39%1st · Defense allowed: 42%1st2nd · Offense: 31%2nd · Defense allowed: 42%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 38%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 44%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 27.0Q1 · Allowed: 108.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 83.0Q2 · Allowed: 163.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 62.0Q3 · Allowed: 115.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 96.0Q4 · Allowed: 90.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledTulsaOffenseDefense
Tulsa Offense vs Defense, 2024
Offensive EffRanked 133rd
-16.0
Field position: -2.2Finishing drives: -13.8
Field position -2.2Finishing drives -13.8= -16.0
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 128th · Finishing 133rd

Defensive EffRanked 130th
-13.8
Field position: -3.1Finishing drives: -10.7
Field position -3.1Finishing drives -10.7= -13.8
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 134th · Finishing 129th

1.56 points per drive on offense, 2.79 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 29.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(202)52% / 48%31%4.7
Q2(249)55% / 45%38%5.8
Q3(198)51% / 49%32%5.4
Q4(213)49% / 51%42%5.9
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(146)10.342%7.8
2nd(144)8.732%5.3
3rd(132)8.128%5.3
4th(25)7.728%4.3
All (447)34%6.1
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(218)9.837%5.1
2nd(131)7.530%4.2
3rd(60)5.860%5.5
4th(6)1.867%5.5
All (415)38%4.9

Tulsa, all games.