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Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky University · 2023 · Conference USA

FanBoardHQ CFP
#69
Efficiency
-3.7
79th FBS
Record
8-5
Conf. record
5-3
Conf. finish
4th
of 9
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Western Kentucky went 8-5 and was ranked 69th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 52nd-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 101st-ranked defense. They passed the ball on 63% of offensive plays with a 58th-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 37% of plays with an 119th-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-1
Q2
0-2
Q3
0-1
Q4
8-1

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 8.0 wins
Strength of Record
60th
-2.4 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
98th
full season
98th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
111th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.9 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs South FloridaAmerican Athletic#82W 4124+7.9100%4.3Q4
2vs Houston ChristianSouthlandW 5222+28.3100%4.8Q4
3@ Ohio StateBig Ten#7L 1063-31.70%-13.7Q1
4@ TroySun Belt#28L 2427-15.70%11.4Q2
5vs Middle TennesseeConference USA#105W 3110+7.8100%7.4Q4
6@ Louisiana TechConference USA#126W 3528+11.6100%-6.8Q4
8@ Jacksonville StateConference USA#62L 1720-3.30%-3.1Q3
9vs LibertyConference USA#23L 2942-9.90%-10.8Q2
10@ UTEPConference USA#121W 2113+8.6100%-2.8Q4
11vs New Mexico StateConference USA#65L 2938+3.50%-21.6Q4
12vs Sam HoustonConference USA#118W 2823+12.6100%-12.3Q4
13@ FIUConference USA#123W 4128+16.5100%6.8Q4
Postseason
vs Old DominionSun Belt#89W 3835+5.3100%-11.3Q4

13 played · 8-5. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Western Kentucky, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-18.9-5.1+8.745-14117-7-3-11-3-22-127Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 58th
SR 83rdYPP 65thEPA 51st
RushingEff 119th
SR 117thYPP 110thEPA 116th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 106th
SR 118thYPP 88thEPA 110th
Rush defenseEff 115th
SR 118thYPP 105thEPA 116th
Dropback rate 63%Tempo +1.2 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 84th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 39%1st · Defense allowed: 44%1st2nd · Offense: 37%2nd · Defense allowed: 45%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 48%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 45%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 117.0Q1 · Allowed: 52.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 104.0Q2 · Allowed: 130.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 56.0Q3 · Allowed: 73.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 100.0Q4 · Allowed: 83.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledWestern KentuckyOffenseDefense
Western Kentucky Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 52nd
+1.2
Field position: -0.5Finishing drives: +1.6
Field position -0.5Finishing drives +1.6= +1.2
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 84th · Finishing 49th

Defensive EffRanked 101st
-4.3
Field position: -1.7Finishing drives: -2.6
Field position -1.7Finishing drives -2.6= -4.3
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 120th · Finishing 89th

2.33 points per drive on offense, 2.13 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 29.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(243)64% / 36%42%5.9
Q2(235)65% / 35%44%6.2
Q3(189)61% / 39%39%6.1
Q4(212)56% / 44%37%6.1
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(200)10.044%7.3
2nd(187)7.937%6.2
3rd(141)7.347%7.6
4th(13)6.646%5.1
All (541)43%7.0
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(178)9.734%4.2
2nd(100)7.337%5.9
3rd(49)4.745%4.1
4th(11)1.373%0.8
All (338)38%4.6

Western Kentucky, all games.

Western Kentucky Football 2023 — Efficiency & Rankings · FanBoardHQ