FanBoardHQ

South Florida

University of South Florida · 2023 · American Athletic

FanBoardHQ CFP
#82
Efficiency
-8.8
101st FBS
Record
7-6
Conf. record
4-4
Conf. finish
T-5th
of 14
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South Florida went 7-6 and was ranked 82nd in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 88th-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 107th-ranked defense. They ran the ball on 53% of offensive plays with a 99th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 47% of plays with an 86th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-1
Q2
0-1
Q3
0-2
Q4
7-2

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 7.0 wins
Strength of Record
78th
-3.7 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
113th
full season
113th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
108th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.9 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1@ Western KentuckyConference USA#69L 2441-7.90%-16.8Q3
2vs Florida A&MSWACW 3824+10.6100%-7.5Q4
3vs AlabamaSEC#4L 317-27.80%5.1Q1
4vs RiceAmerican Athletic#88W 4229+0.8100%7.4Q4
5@ NavyAmerican Athletic#102W 4430+2.6100%2.9Q4
6@ UABAmerican Athletic#114L 3556+2.10%-38.0Q4
7vs Florida AtlanticAmerican Athletic#111L 1456+3.70%-47.9Q4
8@ UConnFBS Independents#122W 2421+5.0100%-11.0Q4
10@ MemphisAmerican Athletic#36L 5059-15.40%-4.3Q2
11vs TempleAmerican Athletic#129W 2723+15.2100%-20.8Q4
12@ UTSAAmerican Athletic#55L 2149-11.80%-23.8Q3
13vs CharlotteAmerican Athletic#125W 4814+12.3100%4.1Q4
Postseason
vs SyracuseACC#81W 450-3.9100%32.3Q4

13 played · 7-6. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on South Florida, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-43.4-20.2+3.0-17-8573-38-48-11-4-21-244Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 86th
SR 102ndYPP 69thEPA 84th
RushingEff 99th
SR 120thYPP 91stEPA 87th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 129th
SR 77thYPP 134thEPA 126th
Rush defenseEff 55th
SR 42ndYPP 68thEPA 56th
Dropback rate 47%Tempo +6.2 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 85th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 39%1st · Defense allowed: 40%1st2nd · Offense: 42%2nd · Defense allowed: 37%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 40%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 38%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 107.0Q1 · Allowed: 98.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 109.0Q2 · Allowed: 121.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 90.0Q3 · Allowed: 93.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 77.0Q4 · Allowed: 94.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledSouth FloridaOffenseDefense
South Florida Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 88th
-3.0
Field position: +0.4Finishing drives: -3.3
Field position +0.4Finishing drives -3.3= -3.0
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 51st · Finishing 92nd

Defensive EffRanked 107th
-6.0
Field position: -0.2Finishing drives: -5.8
Field position -0.2Finishing drives -5.8= -6.0
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 71st · Finishing 112th

2.21 points per drive on offense, 2.26 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 30.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(267)46% / 54%43%6.1
Q2(238)50% / 50%34%6.1
Q3(244)48% / 52%38%5.8
Q4(256)47% / 53%44%5.2
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(195)10.044%6.8
2nd(153)9.142%8.0
3rd(110)9.727%4.6
4th(24)6.342%4.5
All (482)40%6.6
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(237)9.935%4.4
2nd(170)7.841%5.5
3rd(95)5.851%6.3
4th(21)4.052%4.0
All (523)41%5.1

South Florida, all games.