FanBoardHQ

Central Michigan

Central Michigan University · 2023 · Mid-American

FanBoardHQ CFP
#107
Efficiency
-15.3
117th FBS
Record
5-7
Conf. record
3-5
Conf. finish
T-7th
of 12
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Central Michigan went 5-7 and was ranked 107th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 102nd-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 124th-ranked defense. They ran the ball on 56% of offensive plays with a 73rd-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 44% of plays with an 119th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-1
Q2
1-0
Q3
0-2
Q4
4-4

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 5.0 wins
Strength of Record
98th
-4.8 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
109th
full season
109th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
121st
a 25th-ranked team would win ~7.2 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1@ Michigan StateBig Ten#90L 731-11.30%-28.1Q4
2vs New HampshireCoastal AthleticW 4542-0.7100%-14.7Q4
3@ Notre DameFBS Independents#13L 1741-40.00%0.1Q1
4@ South AlabamaSun Belt#70W 3430-22.0100%12.3Q2
5vs Eastern MichiganMid-American#112W 2623+8.7100%-22.5Q4
6@ BuffaloMid-American#124L 1337-1.00%-29.7Q4
7vs AkronMid-American#132W 1710+10.4100%-19.1Q4
8@ Ball StateMid-American#116L 1724-2.90%-20.0Q4
10vs Northern IllinoisMid-American#84W 3731-4.9100%-3.6Q4
11@ Western MichiganMid-American#117L 2838-0.30%-25.6Q4
12@ OhioMid-American#54L 2034-14.80%-14.3Q3
13vs ToledoMid-American#43L 1732-13.40%-18.4Q3

12 played · 5-7. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Central Michigan, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-26.3-8.7+8.9-28-15012-22-30-19-20-4-26-14-18Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 119th
SR 112thYPP 107thEPA 123rd
RushingEff 73rd
SR 90thYPP 78thEPA 65th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 115th
SR 99thYPP 122ndEPA 117th
Rush defenseEff 126th
SR 121stYPP 127thEPA 122nd
Dropback rate 44%Tempo +1.4 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 77th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 40%1st · Defense allowed: 48%1st2nd · Offense: 38%2nd · Defense allowed: 44%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 41%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 40%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 31.0Q1 · Allowed: 68.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 90.0Q2 · Allowed: 81.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 86.0Q3 · Allowed: 90.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 66.0Q4 · Allowed: 114.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledCentral MichiganOffenseDefense
Central Michigan Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 102nd
-5.5
Field position: -2.5Finishing drives: -3.1
Field position -2.5Finishing drives -3.1= -5.5
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 128th · Finishing 89th

Defensive EffRanked 124th
-9.1
Field position: -0.2Finishing drives: -9.0
Field position -0.2Finishing drives -9.0= -9.1
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 70th · Finishing 126th

1.95 points per drive on offense, 2.50 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 29.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(187)43% / 57%40%5.6
Q2(204)47% / 53%39%5.3
Q3(187)43% / 57%43%6.2
Q4(190)52% / 48%37%4.6
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(150)10.338%5.5
2nd(100)9.336%5.2
3rd(96)9.031%6.3
4th(8)6.350%11.5
All (354)36%5.7
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(184)10.042%5.2
2nd(148)7.639%5.4
3rd(67)5.245%5.1
4th(15)2.580%3.0
All (414)43%5.2

Central Michigan, all games.