FanBoardHQ

Buffalo

University at Buffalo · 2023 · Mid-American

FanBoardHQ CFP
#124
Efficiency
-17.0
122nd FBS
Record
3-9
Conf. record
3-5
Conf. finish
T-7th
of 12
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Buffalo went 3-9 and was ranked 124th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 114th-ranked defense carried them, with a 122nd-ranked offense. They ran the ball on 51% of offensive plays with an 114th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 49% of plays with a 122nd-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-0
Q2
0-3
Q3
0-2
Q4
3-4

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 3.0 wins
Strength of Record
127th
-7.0 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
122nd
full season
122nd
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
113th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~7.0 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1@ WisconsinBig Ten#60L 1738-22.40%-16.9Q2
2vs FordhamPatriotL 3740+6.10%-23.1Q4
3vs LibertyConference USA#23L 2755-23.20%-19.7Q2
4@ LouisianaSun Belt#87L 3845-15.00%-14.7Q3
5@ AkronMid-American#132W 1310+3.2100%-19.2Q4
6vs Central MichiganMid-American#107W 3713+1.0100%-2.6Q4
7vs Bowling GreenMid-American#75L 1424-9.70%-13.7Q4
8@ Kent StateMid-American#133W 246+10.7100%-10.8Q4
10@ ToledoMid-American#43L 1331-20.60%-10.2Q2
11vs OhioMid-American#54L 1020-11.00%-21.0Q4
12@ Miami-OHMid-American#44L 1023-17.60%-12.1Q3
13vs Eastern MichiganMid-American#112L 1124+7.00%-39.9Q4

12 played · 3-9. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Buffalo, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-36.7-20.0-3.2-17-23-20-15-19-3-14-11-10-21-12-40Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 122nd
SR 120thYPP 126thEPA 116th
RushingEff 114th
SR 108thYPP 106thEPA 118th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 86th
SR 107thYPP 84thEPA 74th
Rush defenseEff 65th
SR 32ndYPP 101stEPA 61st
Dropback rate 49%Tempo +0.6 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 82nd on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 42%1st · Defense allowed: 40%1st2nd · Offense: 37%2nd · Defense allowed: 40%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 36%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 38%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 45.0Q1 · Allowed: 64.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 57.0Q2 · Allowed: 95.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 76.0Q3 · Allowed: 72.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 58.0Q4 · Allowed: 79.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledBuffaloOffenseDefense
Buffalo Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 122nd
-10.8
Field position: -1.3Finishing drives: -9.4
Field position -1.3Finishing drives -9.4= -10.8
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 109th · Finishing 122nd

Defensive EffRanked 114th
-6.7
Field position: -2.0Finishing drives: -4.7
Field position -2.0Finishing drives -4.7= -6.7
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 126th · Finishing 105th

1.60 points per drive on offense, 2.17 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 30.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(169)40% / 60%38%4.8
Q2(212)56% / 44%39%5.0
Q3(212)40% / 60%41%4.8
Q4(242)62% / 38%38%4.2
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(166)10.539%5.3
2nd(117)8.532%4.4
3rd(112)7.430%5.3
4th(25)5.036%4.8
All (420)34%5.0
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(177)9.545%4.7
2nd(149)6.942%4.4
3rd(72)4.944%3.6
4th(17)1.441%2.1
All (415)43%4.3

Buffalo, all games.