FanBoardHQ

Massachusetts

University of Massachusetts Amherst · 2023 · FBS Independents

FanBoardHQ CFP
#127
Efficiency
-19.8
127th FBS
Record
3-9
Conf. record
1-1
Conf. finish
T-1st
of 4
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Massachusetts went 3-9 and was ranked 127th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 89th-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 131st-ranked defense. They ran the ball on 52% of offensive plays with a 21st-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 48% of plays with a 104th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-1
Q2
0-2
Q3
1-1
Q4
2-5

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 3.0 wins
Strength of Record
121st
-6.3 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
84th
full season
84th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
3rd
a 25th-ranked team would win ~1.8 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
0@ New Mexico StateConference USA#65W 4130-18.1100%14.0Q3
1@ AuburnSEC#59L 1459-28.10%-34.1Q2
2vs Miami-OHMid-American#44L 2841-14.90%-17.0Q4
3@ Eastern MichiganMid-American#112L 1719-1.30%-21.3Q4
4vs New MexicoMountain West#115L 3134-2.60%-17.1Q4
5vs Arkansas StateSun Belt#91L 2852-7.60%-40.7Q4
6vs ToledoMid-American#43L 2441-17.80%-19.3Q3
7@ Penn StateBig Ten#12L 063-44.90%-22.0Q1
9@ ArmyFBS Independents#83W 2114-14.8100%3.1Q4
10vs MerrimackNECW 3121+14.4100%-21.1Q4
12@ LibertyConference USA#23L 2549-31.50%-26.5Q2
13vs UConnFBS Independents#122L 1831-0.50%-35.3Q4

12 played · 3-9. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Massachusetts, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-36.3-13.4+9.614-34-17-21-17-41-19-223-21-27-35Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 104th
SR 106thYPP 100thEPA 103rd
RushingEff 21st
SR 62ndYPP 6thEPA 13th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 118th
SR 134thYPP 125thEPA 104th
Rush defenseEff 136th
SR 134thYPP 132ndEPA 136th
Dropback rate 48%Tempo -3.9 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 85th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 44%1st · Defense allowed: 47%1st2nd · Offense: 43%2nd · Defense allowed: 52%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 36%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 47%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 42.0Q1 · Allowed: 96.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 61.0Q2 · Allowed: 135.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 50.0Q3 · Allowed: 73.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 104.0Q4 · Allowed: 107.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledMassachusettsOffenseDefense
Massachusetts Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 89th
-3.9
Field position: -2.0Finishing drives: -1.9
Field position -2.0Finishing drives -1.9= -3.9
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 122nd · Finishing 80th

Defensive EffRanked 131st
-14.0
Field position: -2.9Finishing drives: -11.1
Field position -2.9Finishing drives -11.1= -14.0
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 131st · Finishing 129th

1.76 points per drive on offense, 2.94 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 28.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(177)49% / 51%43%5.6
Q2(190)50% / 50%42%6.3
Q3(182)54% / 46%37%4.9
Q4(162)48% / 52%46%8.2
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(145)10.246%7.5
2nd(120)9.043%7.0
3rd(86)8.727%5.4
4th(7)9.40%4.0
All (358)39%6.8
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(170)9.742%4.7
2nd(119)7.643%6.7
3rd(58)5.853%6.6
4th(6)2.250%5.2
All (353)44%5.7

Massachusetts, all games.