FanBoardHQ

Tulsa

University of Tulsa · 2023 · American Athletic

FanBoardHQ CFP
#113
Efficiency
-15.5
118th FBS
Record
4-8
Conf. record
2-6
Conf. finish
T-11th
of 14
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Tulsa went 4-8 and was ranked 113th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 107th-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 108th-ranked defense. They ran the ball on 56% of offensive plays with a 124th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 44% of plays with a 61st-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-3
Q2
0-1
Q3
0-0
Q4
4-4

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 4.0 wins
Strength of Record
105th
-5.0 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
75th
full season
75th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
98th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.6 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs Arkansas-Pine BluffSWACW 427+39.5100%-23.5Q4
2@ WashingtonPac-12#1L 1043-39.90%-11.2Q1
3vs OklahomaBig 12#11L 1766-32.80%-22.0Q1
4@ Northern IllinoisMid-American#84W 2214-10.6100%1.9Q4
5vs TempleAmerican Athletic#129W 4826+8.5100%0.8Q4
6@ Florida AtlanticAmerican Athletic#111L 1720-8.50%-9.9Q4
8vs RiceAmerican Athletic#88L 1042-5.90%-36.1Q4
9@ SMUAmerican Athletic#31L 1069-28.30%-42.9Q1
10vs CharlotteAmerican Athletic#125L 2633+5.70%-20.5Q4
11@ TulaneAmerican Athletic#37L 2224-20.30%4.9Q2
12vs North TexasAmerican Athletic#99L 2835-1.80%-20.0Q4
13@ East CarolinaAmerican Athletic#128W 2927-6.8100%-7.4Q4

12 played · 4-8. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Tulsa, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-39.1-19.0+1.1-24-11-2221-10-36-43-215-20-7Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 61st
SR 54thYPP 58thEPA 66th
RushingEff 124th
SR 122ndYPP 109thEPA 129th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 127th
SR 101stYPP 129thEPA 125th
Rush defenseEff 120th
SR 104thYPP 128thEPA 121st
Dropback rate 44%Tempo +0.6 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 68th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 41%1st · Defense allowed: 49%1st2nd · Offense: 39%2nd · Defense allowed: 39%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 48%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 44%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 55.0Q1 · Allowed: 129.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 107.0Q2 · Allowed: 92.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 35.0Q3 · Allowed: 94.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 85.0Q4 · Allowed: 57.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledTulsaOffenseDefense
Tulsa Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 107th
-6.5
Field position: -1.7Finishing drives: -4.8
Field position -1.7Finishing drives -4.8= -6.5
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 121st · Finishing 101st

Defensive EffRanked 108th
-6.2
Field position: -1.9Finishing drives: -4.3
Field position -1.9Finishing drives -4.3= -6.2
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 122nd · Finishing 104th

1.82 points per drive on offense, 2.53 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 29.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(231)42% / 58%43%5.3
Q2(220)44% / 56%43%6.1
Q3(186)40% / 60%35%5.4
Q4(204)41% / 59%46%5.8
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(106)10.147%7.9
2nd(110)8.337%5.3
3rd(125)7.745%7.1
4th(11)5.536%3.5
All (352)43%6.7
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(250)9.938%4.9
2nd(172)7.240%4.9
3rd(63)4.954%5.0
4th(4)2.375%6.8
All (489)41%4.9

Tulsa, all games.