FanBoardHQ

SMU

Southern Methodist University · 2023 · American Athletic

FanBoardHQ CFP
#31
Efficiency
+10.1
29th FBS
Record
11-3
Conf. record
9-0
Conf. finish
1st
of 14
SMU Fanboard →

SMU went 11-3 and was ranked 31st in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Offense (36th) and defense (36th) were about even. They ran the ball on 51% of offensive plays with a 94th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 49% of plays with a 15th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-1
Q2
2-1
Q3
0-0
Q4
9-1

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
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9
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14
Expected: 11.0 wins
Strength of Record
33rd
-0.3 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
107th
full season
107th
CFP committee
#24
FanBoardHQ has them 7 spots lower
Conf. sched. difficulty
129th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~7.7 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs Louisiana TechConference USA#126W 3814+30.9100%17.5Q4
2@ OklahomaBig 12#11L 1128-12.70%7.1Q1
3vs Prairie View A&MSWACW 690+49.8100%15.2Q4
4@ TCUBig 12#61L 1734-0.60%-6.7Q2
5vs CharlotteAmerican Athletic#125W 3416+31.2100%1.1Q4
7@ East CarolinaAmerican Athletic#128W 3110+18.8100%9.8Q4
8@ TempleAmerican Athletic#129W 550+28.6100%18.5Q4
9vs TulsaAmerican Athletic#113W 6910+28.3100%27.4Q4
10@ RiceAmerican Athletic#88W 3631+14.2100%0.8Q4
11vs North TexasAmerican Athletic#99W 4521+23.7100%11.0Q4
12@ MemphisAmerican Athletic#36W 3834+3.5100%12.9Q2
13vs NavyAmerican Athletic#102W 5914+27.0100%20.0Q4
14@ TulaneAmerican Athletic#37W 2614+5.3100%16.7Q2
Postseason
vs Boston CollegeACC#73L 1423+15.20%-13.7Q4

14 played · 11-3. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on SMU, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-4.0+10.3+24.717715-71101927111132017Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 15th
SR 59thYPP 14thEPA 14th
RushingEff 94th
SR 59thYPP 114thEPA 97th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 14th
SR 16thYPP 19thEPA 9th
Rush defenseEff 37th
SR 31stYPP 63rdEPA 48th
Dropback rate 49%Tempo +0.9 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 83rd on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 43%1st · Defense allowed: 38%1st2nd · Offense: 45%2nd · Defense allowed: 34%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 47%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 33%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 153.0Q1 · Allowed: 51.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 147.0Q2 · Allowed: 65.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 96.0Q3 · Allowed: 48.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 98.0Q4 · Allowed: 80.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledSMUOffenseDefense
SMU Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 36th
+4.7
Field position: +1.3Finishing drives: +3.4
Field position +1.3Finishing drives +3.4= +4.7
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 24th · Finishing 40th

Defensive EffRanked 36th
+3.7
Field position: +0.2Finishing drives: +3.5
Field position +0.2Finishing drives +3.5= +3.7
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 59th · Finishing 39th

2.94 points per drive on offense, 1.38 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 31.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(252)52% / 48%48%7.6
Q2(282)48% / 52%48%6.7
Q3(206)44% / 56%49%6.9
Q4(239)44% / 56%35%4.6
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(176)10.145%9.2
2nd(136)8.941%7.4
3rd(129)7.936%6.9
4th(22)3.959%9.5
All (463)42%8.1
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(266)9.742%5.4
2nd(184)6.948%4.9
3rd(59)4.559%3.8
4th(7)1.186%5.1
All (516)47%5.1

SMU, all games.

SMU Football 2023 — Efficiency & Rankings · FanBoardHQ