FanBoardHQ

UCF

University of Central Florida · 2023 · Big 12

FanBoardHQ CFP
#56
Efficiency
+7.5
39th FBS
Record
6-7
Conf. record
3-6
Conf. finish
T-9th
of 14
UCF Fanboard →

UCF went 6-7 and was ranked 56th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 37th-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 44th-ranked defense. They ran the ball on 57% of offensive plays with a 23rd-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 43% of plays with a 48th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-4
Q2
1-1
Q3
2-1
Q4
3-1

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 6.0 wins
Strength of Record
63rd
-2.1 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
31st
full season
31st
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
40th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~5.1 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs Kent StateMid-American#133W 566+40.8100%9.4Q4
2@ Boise StateMountain West#49W 1816-2.1100%10.5Q2
3vs VillanovaCoastal AthleticW 4814+9.6100%31.0Q4
4@ Kansas StateBig 12#14L 3144-17.60%9.8Q1
5vs BaylorBig 12#110L 3536+18.70%-6.5Q4
6@ KansasBig 12#18L 2251-9.00%-26.4Q1
8@ OklahomaBig 12#11L 2931-15.30%21.4Q1
9vs West VirginiaBig 12#25L 2841-0.50%-7.7Q2
10@ CincinnatiBig 12#106W 2826+7.7100%3.0Q3
11vs Oklahoma StateBig 12#17W 453+3.0100%36.3Q3
12@ Texas TechBig 12#33L 2324-6.00%11.6Q1
13vs HoustonBig 12#93W 2713+15.1100%12.5Q4
Postseason
vs Georgia TechACC#51L 1730+5.40%-11.1Q3

13 played · 6-7. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on UCF, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-21.4+4.9+31.29113110-6-2621-83361213Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 48th
SR 74thYPP 23rdEPA 50th
RushingEff 23rd
SR 38thYPP 15thEPA 18th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 21st
SR 48thYPP 27thEPA 16th
Rush defenseEff 110th
SR 124thYPP 100thEPA 98th
Dropback rate 43%Tempo +0.6 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 65th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 45%1st · Defense allowed: 46%1st2nd · Offense: 45%2nd · Defense allowed: 46%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 52%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 43%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 128.0Q1 · Allowed: 57.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 95.0Q2 · Allowed: 86.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 90.0Q3 · Allowed: 57.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 90.0Q4 · Allowed: 123.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledUCFOffenseDefense
UCF Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 37th
+4.7
Field position: -0.6Finishing drives: +5.3
Field position -0.6Finishing drives +5.3= +4.7
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 87th · Finishing 28th

Defensive EffRanked 44th
+2.5
Field position: -0.2Finishing drives: +2.8
Field position -0.2Finishing drives +2.8= +2.5
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 77th · Finishing 46th

2.62 points per drive on offense, 2.15 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 32.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(217)36% / 64%49%7.6
Q2(220)50% / 50%45%7.5
Q3(211)40% / 60%45%7.3
Q4(229)48% / 52%45%6.2
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(164)10.145%8.0
2nd(114)8.242%8.6
3rd(90)7.641%8.4
4th(14)6.450%8.7
All (382)43%8.3
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(240)9.845%5.9
2nd(173)7.146%6.1
3rd(73)5.164%7.3
4th(9)3.867%8.0
All (495)49%6.2

UCF, all games.