FanBoardHQ

USC

University of Southern California · 2025 · Big Ten

FanBoardHQ CFP
#17
Efficiency
+18.1
12th FBS
Record
9-4
Conf. record
7-2
Conf. finish
T-4th
of 18
USC Fanboard →

USC went 9-4 and was ranked 17th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 7th-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 44th-ranked defense. They passed the ball on 52% of offensive plays with a 2nd-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 48% of plays with a 34th-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
1-3
Q2
1-1
Q3
3-0
Q4
4-0

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 9.0 wins
Strength of Record
20th
+0.9 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
29th
full season
29th
CFP committee
#16
FanBoardHQ has them 1 spots lower
Conf. sched. difficulty
50th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~5.5 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs Missouri StateConference USA#85W 7313+29.9100%30.6Q4
2vs Georgia SouthernSun Belt#87W 5920+32.6100%14.2Q4
3@ PurdueBig Ten#111W 3317+18.0100%19.4Q3
4vs Michigan StateBig Ten#86W 4531+21.0100%14.7Q4
5@ IllinoisBig Ten#18L 3234+3.20%12.2Q1
7vs MichiganBig Ten#19W 3113+7.6100%29.4Q2
8@ Notre DameFBS Independents#11L 2434-12.10%21.9Q1
10@ NebraskaBig Ten#52W 2117+12.4100%9.3Q3
11vs NorthwesternBig Ten#49W 3817+17.2100%23.6Q3
12vs IowaBig Ten#16W 2621+4.3100%18.3Q1
13@ OregonBig Ten#2L 2742-10.30%14.6Q1
14vs UCLABig Ten#97W 2910+25.2100%15.9Q4
Postseason
vs TCUBig 12#25L 2730+7.80%8.8Q2

13 played · 9-4. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on USC, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

+2.4+15.3+28.231141915122922924181516Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 2nd
SR 5thYPP 2ndEPA 1st
RushingEff 34th
SR 36thYPP 32ndEPA 33rd
Defense
Pass defenseEff 38th
SR 70thYPP 33rdEPA 29th
Rush defenseEff 62nd
SR 78thYPP 69thEPA 57th
Dropback rate 52%Tempo +2.8 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 59th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 51%1st · Defense allowed: 45%1st2nd · Offense: 44%2nd · Defense allowed: 48%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 55%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 44%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 96.0Q1 · Allowed: 66.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 119.0Q2 · Allowed: 93.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 110.0Q3 · Allowed: 58.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 123.0Q4 · Allowed: 65.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledUSCOffenseDefense
USC Offense vs Defense, 2025
Offensive EffRanked 7th
+14.5
Field position: +0.2Finishing drives: +14.4
Field position +0.2Finishing drives +14.4= +14.5
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 56th · Finishing 3rd

Defensive EffRanked 44th
+4.0
Field position: +2.4Finishing drives: +1.6
Field position +2.4Finishing drives +1.6= +4.0
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 7th · Finishing 57th

3.19 points per drive on offense, 1.90 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 29.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(223)53% / 47%53%7.4
Q2(219)59% / 41%48%7.7
Q3(168)50% / 50%51%8.9
Q4(213)42% / 58%46%6.1
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(166)10.059%9.6
2nd(148)7.447%8.2
3rd(93)7.852%9.4
4th(14)4.757%7.7
All (421)53%9.0
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(227)9.545%5.8
2nd(114)6.740%5.0
3rd(53)5.957%7.9
4th(8)1.375%3.5
All (402)46%5.8

USC, all games.

USC Football 2025 — Efficiency & Rankings · FanBoardHQ